TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marcel Heczko vs Vojtech Cerny 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
110911112119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:58 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMarcel Heczko to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Heczko above · Vojtech Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-0
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 64 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Marcel Heczko at 65.7%
64 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Heczko 6–0 Vojtech Cerny Vojtech Cerny has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Heczko beat Cerny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5865.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Heczko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-0 in 6
Heczko
Correct
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heczko 1519 vs Cerny 1553
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heczko 40% vs Cerny 20%
Heczko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heczko 40% vs Cerny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heczko -2 · Cerny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Heczko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeczko 1.444 / Cerny 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Heczko)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248958
Heczko1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 59 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it82% 45 of 55
Cerny2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 12 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back26% 6 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHeczko6wins
AwayCerny0wins
1 of 6 to a deciderHeczko leads 6–0, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeczko100%4 of 4
AwayCernyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heczko4Cerny2n = 6Heczko took 4 of 6
S2Heczko5Cerny1n = 6Heczko took 5 of 6
S3Heczko5Cerny1n = 6Heczko took 5 of 6
S4Heczko3Cerny1n = 4Heczko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricHeczkoCernyH − CBasisWins60+6in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.830.0+10.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeczkoCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime289 / 598 vs 54 / 11048.3%49.1%289 / 598 vs 54 / 110Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HeczkoHeczko 1.44/Cerny 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Heczko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Heczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 6 · 06:30M. Heczko331111113V. Cerny198470
WJun 3 · 13:30M. Heczko341111123V. Cerny2266100
WJun 3 · 12:30M. Heczko4181111113V. Cerny29118281
WJun 3 · 08:59M. Heczko4918911113V. Cerny421611961
WJun 3 · 08:30M. Heczko43111110113V. Cerny25631241
WMar 12 · 16:00M. Heczko451011112113V. Cerny4312781152
M. Heczko10
WOct 6 · 09:30P. Danko1.579111211112M. Heczko2.251113108133LOct 6 · 08:30P. Danko1.61511411113M. Heczko2.2011711862LOct 6 · 07:30M. Heczko1.91771311102J. Levicky1.801111115123WOct 6 · 06:30V. Cerny2.508470M. Heczko1.501111113WOct 5 · 09:07O. Hradil1.83103111162M. Heczko1.83121155113LOct 5 · 08:30S. Byrtus1.831311116113M. Heczko1.8315681182LOct 5 · 07:30M. Heczko1.91410111172J. Levicky1.80111269113LOct 5 · 06:30O. Hradil1.8311411113M. Heczko1.83711781LSep 28 · 17:30J. Stoch1.6701111113M. Heczko2.10114951WSep 28 · 16:30M. Heczko1.831111113D. Oborny1.836790
V. Cerny10
LOct 6 · 08:59J. Levicky1.83811118113V. Cerny1.8311491182WOct 6 · 08:00J. Levicky1.61117791V. Cerny2.2061111113LOct 6 · 07:00P. Danko1.8391111113V. Cerny1.83116891LOct 6 · 06:30V. Cerny2.508470M. Heczko1.501111113LSep 20 · 21:28D. Oborny2.0011511113V. Cerny1.73411851LSep 20 · 20:00D. Oborny2.381111153V. Cerny1.5386130WSep 20 · 19:00L. Velicka1.918560V. Cerny1.801111113WSep 20 · 18:30V. Cerny2.63121296113M. Volny1.441010111192LSep 17 · 21:30V. Cerny1.7311661192V. Adamczyk2.00911116113WSep 17 · 20:30V. Adamczyk1.73611891V. Cerny2.0011511113
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