TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Samuel Byrtus vs Marcel Heczko 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1315116118611118
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:26 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSamuel Byrtus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSamuel Byrtus above · Marcel Heczko below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 100 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Samuel Byrtus at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Samuel Byrtus 14–20 Marcel Heczko Samuel Byrtus has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Heczko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-20 in 34
Heczko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Byrtus 1592 vs Heczko 1520
Byrtus
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Byrtus 60% vs Heczko 40%
Byrtus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Byrtus 60% vs Heczko 20%
Byrtus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Byrtus +2 · Heczko -3
Heczko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Byrtus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heczko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsByrtus 1.833 / Heczko 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Byrtus)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13243677
Byrtus1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Heczko1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeByrtus3wins
AwayHeczko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHeczko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeByrtus33.3%1 of 3
AwayHeczko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Byrtus3Heczko7n = 10Heczko took 7 of 10
S2Byrtus5Heczko5n = 10split evenly
S3Byrtus5Heczko5n = 10split evenly
S4Byrtus4Heczko6n = 10Heczko took 6 of 10
S5Byrtus1Heczko2n = 3Heczko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricByrtusHeczkoB − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.942.4−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricByrtusHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime292 / 565 vs 289 / 59551.7%48.6%292 / 565 vs 289 / 595Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ByrtusByrtus 1.83/Heczko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Byrtus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Byrtus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 07:00S. Byrtus388101191M. Heczko4211128113
LAug 14 · 09:14S. Byrtus361168111M. Heczko3831111133
WAug 14 · 06:00S. Byrtus4381111133M. Heczko391198111
LJun 5 · 18:00S. Byrtus4213111081M. Heczko4715912113
LMay 23 · 19:30S. Byrtus4271281232M. Heczko5311101110113
WApr 25 · 12:00S. Byrtus4211911113M. Heczko30511951
LApr 24 · 09:30S. Byrtus50111111892M. Heczko51139711113
LApr 24 · 07:00S. Byrtus32691161M. Heczko3711114113
WApr 20 · 13:29S. Byrtus496111011113M. Heczko4511612972
LApr 20 · 11:00S. Byrtus351151181M. Heczko4271113113
S. Byrtus10
LOct 5 · 09:30S. Byrtus1.73156100J. Levicky2.001711123WOct 5 · 07:00S. Byrtus1.6781111113O. Hradil2.10114721WOct 5 · 06:00J. Levicky2.1012911982S. Byrtus1.671011611113LOct 4 · 09:29D. Oborny1.53119119113S. Byrtus2.3881171182WOct 4 · 08:00J. Levicky1.919111171S. Byrtus1.8011137113LOct 4 · 07:00D. Oborny1.57111111113S. Byrtus2.25791351WOct 4 · 06:30S. Byrtus1.7311119113D. Machander2.00561161LSep 25 · 17:30S. Byrtus2.25671161A. Walek1.5711113113WSep 25 · 16:30A. Walek2.00710110S. Byrtus1.731112133WSep 25 · 15:30S. Byrtus1.8011111010113D. Langer1.9188121282
M. Heczko10
WOct 5 · 09:07O. Hradil1.83103111162M. Heczko1.83121155113LOct 5 · 07:30M. Heczko1.91410111172J. Levicky1.80111269113LOct 5 · 06:30O. Hradil1.8311411113M. Heczko1.83711781LSep 28 · 17:30J. Stoch1.6701111113M. Heczko2.10114951WSep 28 · 16:30M. Heczko1.831111113D. Oborny1.836790WSep 28 · 15:00M. Heczko1.83115614123J. Stoch1.838111112102LSep 28 · 14:00J. Levicky1.731111113M. Heczko2.008850LSep 28 · 12:58T. Petrek1.53511118113M. Heczko2.3811861192LSep 28 · 12:30M. Heczko1.83101181362D. Oborny1.831241111113LSep 28 · 11:00M. Heczko2.10145781T. Petrek1.67121111113
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