TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Marek Zaskodny vs David Stusek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191191210––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Stusek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Zaskodny above · David Stusek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 62 set 3, 12-10 · our read held David Stusek at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Marek Zaskodny 7–5 David Stusek David Stusek has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:3954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Stusek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Zaskodny
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zaskodny 1569 vs Stusek 1637
Stusek
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zaskodny 40% vs Stusek 60%
Stusek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zaskodny 30% vs Stusek 60%
Stusek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zaskodny -1 · Stusek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stusek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zaskodny form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZaskodny 1.833 / Stusek 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stusek)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13258114
Zaskodny1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 14 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Stusek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZaskodny5wins
AwayStusek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZaskodny80%4 of 5
AwayStusek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zaskodny5Stusek5n = 10split evenly
S2Zaskodny6Stusek4n = 10Zaskodny took 6 of 10
S3Zaskodny5Stusek5n = 10split evenly
S4Zaskodny0Stusek6n = 6Stusek took 6 of 6
S5Zaskodny3Stusek1n = 4Zaskodny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZaskodnyStusekZ − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.239.6−0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZaskodnyStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 295 vs 105 / 20941%50.2%121 / 295 vs 105 / 209Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.740.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StusekZaskodny 1.83/Stusek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zaskodny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 10 · 18:10M. Zaskodny44511116113D. Stusek4611871192
WApr 22 · 20:15M. Zaskodny49116129113D. Stusek47911101162
WApr 16 · 18:10M. Zaskodny381116113D. Stusek2751480
LApr 10 · 14:10M. Zaskodny5713111112102D. Stusek55156814123
LMar 31 · 21:20M. Zaskodny34119771D. Stusek3741111113
LMar 31 · 19:45M. Zaskodny188460D. Stusek331111113
LMar 10 · 19:15M. Zaskodny397118131D. Stusek4311611153
LMar 1 · 18:10M. Zaskodny198830D. Stusek331111113
WMar 1 · 16:10M. Zaskodny331111113D. Stusek215880
WJan 12 · 18:20M. Zaskodny6111111513113D. Stusek5495171582
M. Zaskodny10
WOct 7 · 15:45M. Zaskodny2.00311115113F. Chaloupka1.7311881152WOct 7 · 14:45M. Zaskodny2.00111259113D. Skulina1.73910111172LSep 23 · 16:48M. Zaskodny2.7591112121J. Skvrna1.4011714143WSep 23 · 16:10J. Skvrna1.306111191M. Zaskodny3.4011813113LSep 23 · 15:10M. Zaskodny2.207460A. Baros1.611111113WSep 23 · 13:40D. Sarganek1.83471371M. Zaskodny1.83111111113LSep 20 · 17:14F. Chaloupka1.501111113M. Zaskodny2.504680LSep 20 · 15:45M. Zaskodny1.73121331162D. Skulina2.001411116113LSep 20 · 14:45M. Zaskodny2.20119661F. Chaloupka1.6181111113WSep 20 · 13:45M. Zaskodny1.7611118113J. Skalicky1.90691151
D. Stusek10
WOct 7 · 16:15D. Skulina1.73116771D. Stusek2.0091111113LOct 7 · 15:15D. Stusek2.108101161F. Chaloupka1.6711128113WOct 2 · 21:25D. Stusek1.331111113D. Vitasek3.259670LOct 2 · 19:45L. Slavik1.9111116113D. Stusek1.80991191WOct 2 · 19:15D. Vitasek3.005590D. Stusek1.361111113WOct 2 · 18:15D. Stusek1.6091111143K. Kleprlik2.201168121LSep 30 · 17:14B. Moravec1.6761111113D. Stusek2.10118941WSep 30 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.578940D. Stusek2.251111113WSep 30 · 15:15D. Stusek1.8311115113F. Chaloupka1.83881181LSep 30 · 13:45B. Moravec1.8391111123D. Stusek1.831147101
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