TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Stusek vs Daniel Vitasek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116117––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:21 and never touched: 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Stusek to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Stusek above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 · our read held David Stusek at 54.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H David Stusek 8–4 Daniel Vitasek Daniel Vitasek has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Stusek beat Vitasek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2154.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 20.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Stusek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Stusek
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1627 vs Vitasek 1517
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 60% vs Vitasek 80%
Vitasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 60% vs Vitasek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek -1 · Vitasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Stusek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.333 / Vitasek 3.25
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Stusek)-20.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13235097
Stusek1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 32 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it76% 19 of 25
Vitasek3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 93 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek7wins
AwayVitasek3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStusek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek83.3%5 of 6
AwayVitasek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek6Vitasek4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S2Stusek9Vitasek1n = 10Stusek took 9 of 10
S3Stusek5Vitasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Stusek5Vitasek2n = 7Stusek took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekVitasekS − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.433.0+4.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 208 vs 312 / 65950%47.3%104 / 208 vs 312 / 659Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStusek 1.33/Vitasek 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 19:15D. Stusek331111113D. Vitasek195590
WSep 22 · 17:45D. Stusek4211119113D. Vitasek34971171
WAug 23 · 08:50D. Stusek331111113D. Vitasek227870
LAug 23 · 07:15D. Stusek32711861D. Vitasek3911611113
LAug 2 · 17:45D. Stusek44101141182D. Vitasek48125119113
WJul 31 · 18:40D. Stusek4581511113D. Vitasek391113871
WMay 11 · 21:10D. Stusek341111123D. Vitasek2697100
WMay 11 · 20:10D. Stusek3961111113D. Vitasek28113681
WMay 10 · 20:39D. Stusek4011126113D. Vitasek368101171
LMay 10 · 20:10D. Stusek32115881D. Vitasek3961111113
D. Stusek10
LOct 2 · 19:45L. Slavik1.9111116113D. Stusek1.80991191WOct 2 · 19:15D. Vitasek3.005590D. Stusek1.361111113WOct 2 · 18:15D. Stusek1.6091111143K. Kleprlik2.201168121LSep 30 · 17:14B. Moravec1.6761111113D. Stusek2.10118941WSep 30 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.578940D. Stusek2.251111113WSep 30 · 15:15D. Stusek1.8311115113F. Chaloupka1.83881181LSep 30 · 13:45B. Moravec1.8391111123D. Stusek1.831147101LSep 27 · 09:10A. Veliiev2.001711113D. Stusek1.7315360WSep 27 · 07:40J. Skalicky2.1081111872D. Stusek1.67113611113WSep 27 · 07:10A. Kanak1.73811115132D. Stusek2.00116711153
D. Vitasek10
WOct 2 · 20:15K. Kleprlik1.7389111192D. Vitasek2.00111149113LOct 2 · 19:15D. Vitasek3.005590D. Stusek1.361111113WOct 2 · 17:45L. Slavik1.5311811111D. Vitasek2.3813117133WOct 1 · 21:10I. Heuman1.578960D. Vitasek2.251111113WOct 1 · 20:15P. Marsalek1.618490D. Vitasek2.201111113LOct 1 · 19:15D. Vitasek1.9111212512I. Heuman1.802111011113WOct 1 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.809910D. Vitasek1.911111113LSep 28 · 12:40D. Vitasek1.7311470L. Lasota2.001311113LSep 28 · 11:45P. Vinansky1.531111113D. Vitasek2.388960WSep 28 · 11:15L. Lasota1.801171141D. Vitasek1.9113116113
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