TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Slavik vs Daniel Vitasek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11138111171113––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:40 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeLukas Slavik to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Slavik above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 85 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Lukas Slavik at 63.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Slavik 3–1 Daniel Vitasek Daniel Vitasek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4063.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Slavik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Slavik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slavik 1646 vs Vitasek 1496
Slavik
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slavik 40% vs Vitasek 60%
Vitasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slavik 60% vs Vitasek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slavik +1 · Vitasek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Slavik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlavik 1.533 / Vitasek 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Slavik)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13231760
Slavik1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 41 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it77% 30 of 39
Vitasek2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 93 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSlavik3wins
AwayVitasek1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderSlavik leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlavik100%3 of 3
AwayVitasekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slavik3Vitasek1n = 4Slavik took 3 of 4
S2Slavik2Vitasek2n = 4split evenly
S3Slavik4Vitasek0n = 4Slavik took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSlavikVitasekS − VBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match43.838.2+5.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlavikVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 244 vs 310 / 65652.5%47.3%128 / 244 vs 310 / 656Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SlavikSlavik 1.53/Vitasek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Slavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 16 · 07:10L. Slavik331111113D. Vitasek207760
WJul 4 · 17:15L. Slavik54169117113D. Vitasek50141151192
LJul 4 · 15:45L. Slavik54881114132D. Vitasek581111912153
WJul 3 · 20:10L. Slavik341112113D. Vitasek2571080
L. Slavik10
WSep 30 · 12:44L. Kantor2.207990L. Slavik1.611111113LSep 30 · 11:45L. Slavik1.914880J. Skvrna1.801111113LSep 30 · 10:45L. Slavik1.61571181T. Krenek2.2011117113LSep 30 · 09:45L. Slavik1.6161141192L. Kantor2.20119117113WSep 28 · 21:18J. Gembala1.91111158122L. Slavik1.80561111143WSep 28 · 20:15L. Slavik1.571011111113D. Velky Jr2.2512741162WSep 28 · 18:45J. Gembala1.737114121L. Slavik2.0011911143LSep 28 · 18:15J. Krupnik1.8351111113L. Slavik1.83116951WSep 27 · 17:09F. Chaloupka1.731271251L. Slavik2.00101114113WSep 27 · 16:10D. Velky Jr2.201111061L. Slavik1.6111712113
D. Vitasek10
WOct 1 · 21:10I. Heuman1.578960D. Vitasek2.251111113WOct 1 · 20:15P. Marsalek1.618490D. Vitasek2.201111113LOct 1 · 19:15D. Vitasek1.9111212512I. Heuman1.802111011113WOct 1 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.809910D. Vitasek1.911111113LSep 28 · 12:40D. Vitasek1.7311470L. Lasota2.001311113LSep 28 · 11:45P. Vinansky1.531111113D. Vitasek2.388960WSep 28 · 11:15L. Lasota1.801171141D. Vitasek1.9113116113LSep 28 · 10:15D. Vitasek1.91711691J. Volny1.8011311113WSep 28 · 08:43T. Krenek1.575960D. Vitasek2.251111113LSep 28 · 08:10D. Vitasek1.83121161572M. Raska1.831471113113
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