TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Pros vs Tomas Trnka 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117511115114––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:32 and never touched: 81.1% is still 81.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Trnka to win
81.1%
81.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Pros above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 65 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Tomas Trnka at 81.1%
65 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Pros 0–3 Tomas Trnka Ondrej Pros has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3281.1%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 2.2pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Trnka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Trnka
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pros 1372 vs Trnka 1627
Trnka
Wrong
both rated, 256 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pros 0% vs Trnka 80%
Trnka
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pros 20% vs Trnka 60%
Trnka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pros -6 · Trnka +2
Pros
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans Trnka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pros form (0%) is below what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPros 4.333 / Trnka 1.20
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Trnka)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13256632
Pros4.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 38 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Trnka1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 68 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePros0wins
AwayTrnka3wins
Trnka leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProsn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayTrnka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pros0Trnka3n = 3Trnka took 3 of 3
S2Pros1Trnka2n = 3Trnka took 2 of 3
S3Pros0Trnka3n = 3Trnka took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricProsTrnkaP − TBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match22.036.7−14.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProsTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 276 vs 155 / 29844.2%52%122 / 276 vs 155 / 298Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TrnkaPros 4.33/Trnka 1.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.1%
Trnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 5 · 07:35O. Pros185490T. Trnka331111113
LSep 24 · 09:05O. Pros24613321T. Trnka44111111113
LSep 24 · 06:05O. Pros248790T. Trnka331111113
O. Pros10
LOct 7 · 06:05P. Chvatal1.2211118113O. Pros4.00631171LOct 5 · 09:08R. Neterda1.8312811113O. Pros1.831011851LOct 5 · 08:35R. Neterda2.0031111123O. Pros1.731165101LOct 5 · 07:35O. Pros3.755490T. Trnka1.251111113LOct 5 · 06:05T. Palan1.611111011113O. Pros2.2091112662LOct 1 · 17:24O. Pros1.831011581J. Martin1.8312711113WOct 1 · 16:05J. Martin1.504740O. Pros2.501111113LOct 1 · 15:35L. Vana1.53101111113O. Pros2.38128491LOct 1 · 14:35O. Pros1.8342110T. Krcil1.831111133WSep 29 · 13:08J. Lovl1.3371011101O. Pros3.2511128123
T. Trnka10
WOct 7 · 06:35T. Trnka1.50118119113R. Neterda2.5081141172WOct 5 · 09:38T. Palan1.53119351T. Trnka2.3891111113LOct 5 · 08:05T. Palan2.001111113T. Trnka1.737770WOct 5 · 07:35O. Pros3.755490T. Trnka1.251111113WOct 5 · 06:35T. Trnka1.40116119123R. Neterda2.75311911102LOct 4 · 13:34O. Stehlik1.61118311113T. Trnka2.2071111242WOct 4 · 12:35T. Trnka1.281111113M. Holub3.508640LOct 4 · 11:05M. Mastera1.44159119113T. Trnka2.63131171192WOct 4 · 10:35O. Stehlik1.44111189102T. Trnka2.63931111123LSep 29 · 17:35J. Ruzicka1.611111113T. Trnka2.205360
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