TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Chvatal vs Ondrej Pros 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116113811117––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:04 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timePavel Chvatal to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Ondrej Pros below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 68 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Pavel Chvatal at 79.4%
68 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 3–0 Ondrej Pros Ondrej Pros has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0479.4%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 2.4pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Chvatal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Chvatal
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1633 vs Pros 1392
Chvatal
Correct
both rated, 242 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 100% vs Pros 0%
Chvatal
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 80% vs Pros 20%
Chvatal
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal +6 · Pros -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Chvatal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pros form (0%) is below what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 1.222 / Pros 4.00
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Chvatal)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13256434
Chvatal1.22
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 49 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 37 of 51
Pros4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 05)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 38 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChvatal3wins
AwayPros0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderChvatal leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvatal100%3 of 3
AwayProsn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal3Pros0n = 3Chvatal took 3 of 3
S2Chvatal3Pros0n = 3Chvatal took 3 of 3
S3Chvatal0Pros3n = 3Pros took 3 of 3
S4Chvatal2Pros1n = 3Chvatal took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricChvatalProsC − PBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match45.035.7+9.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalProsBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 281 vs 123 / 27755.2%44.4%155 / 281 vs 123 / 277Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.835.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalChvatal 1.22/Pros 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Chvatal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chvatal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 7 · 06:05P. Chvatal4111118113O. Pros27631171
WSep 24 · 07:35P. Chvatal4511149113O. Pros354121181
WJun 18 · 12:05P. Chvatal49111188113O. Pros4577111192
P. Chvatal10
LOct 7 · 08:05P. Chvatal2.38117821T. Trnka1.5331111113LOct 7 · 07:05P. Chvatal1.6781111482R. Neterda2.10115811113WOct 1 · 13:44P. Chvatal2.001112613113J. Ruzicka1.73910111562WOct 1 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.201112113J. Ruzicka1.6161090WOct 1 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.001112113J. Lovl1.7361070WOct 1 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731111113R. Neterda2.008990WSep 25 · 09:05P. Chvatal1.5011311113M. Rojka2.50911971WSep 25 · 08:05P. Chvatal1.5711118113R. Neterda2.25571131LSep 25 · 07:05P. Chvatal1.576370M. Flesar2.251111113WSep 25 · 06:05P. Chvatal1.6181111113M. Rojka2.20116881
O. Pros10
WOct 7 · 07:35O. Pros4.3311511113T. Trnka1.20711541LOct 5 · 09:08R. Neterda1.8312811113O. Pros1.831011851LOct 5 · 08:35R. Neterda2.0031111123O. Pros1.731165101LOct 5 · 07:35O. Pros3.755490T. Trnka1.251111113LOct 5 · 06:05T. Palan1.611111011113O. Pros2.2091112662LOct 1 · 17:24O. Pros1.831011581J. Martin1.8312711113WOct 1 · 16:05J. Martin1.504740O. Pros2.501111113LOct 1 · 15:35L. Vana1.53101111113O. Pros2.38128491LOct 1 · 14:35O. Pros1.8342110T. Krcil1.831111133WSep 29 · 13:08J. Lovl1.3371011101O. Pros3.2511128123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.