TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Marek Dlask vs Ondrej Sebek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111012118611––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:36 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeMarek Dlask to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Dlask above · Ondrej Sebek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 75 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Marek Dlask at 64.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Marek Dlask 3–1 Ondrej Sebek Ondrej Sebek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Dlask beat Sebek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:3664.5%Our read69.9%to break even at 1.43
short by 5.4pp69.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.43 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.43 (65%)
Dlask
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Dlask
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dlask 1363 vs Sebek 1282
Dlask
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dlask 80% vs Sebek 60%
Dlask
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dlask 50% vs Sebek 30%
Dlask
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dlask +4 · Sebek +1
Dlask
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Dlask) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDlask 1.43 / Sebek 2.60
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Dlask)-5.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13256380
Dlask1.43
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 35 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Sebek2.60
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 17 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDlask3wins
AwaySebek1wins
3 of 4 to a deciderDlask leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDlask66.7%2 of 3
AwaySebekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dlask3Sebek1n = 4Dlask took 3 of 4
S2Dlask2Sebek2n = 4split evenly
S3Dlask3Sebek1n = 4Dlask took 3 of 4
S4Dlask1Sebek2n = 3Sebek took 2 of 3
S5Dlask2Sebek1n = 3Dlask took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricDlaskSebekD − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match43.843.80.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDlaskSebekBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 307 vs 166 / 34747.2%47.8%145 / 307 vs 166 / 347Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DlaskDlask 1.43/Sebek 2.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Dlask · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 6 · 19:50M. Dlask43411311143O. Sebek52119119122
WSep 17 · 18:20M. Dlask331111113O. Sebek206770
WMar 29 · 19:55M. Dlask51128137113O. Sebek511011111182
LMar 11 · 19:20M. Dlask48117119102O. Sebek52911911123
M. Dlask10
WOct 6 · 20:50M. Nemec1.831171371M. Dlask1.83131111113WOct 6 · 19:50M. Dlask1.50411311143O. Sebek2.50119119122WOct 6 · 18:20M. Kolbusovsky2.106990M. Dlask1.671111113WOct 1 · 21:55M. Dlask1.731111123M. Nemec2.0085100LOct 1 · 21:25M. Dlask3.50511571P. Cibik1.2811611113LOct 1 · 19:55R. Zeman1.5311119113M. Dlask2.38951181WOct 1 · 19:25M. Nemec1.919814111M. Dlask1.80111112133LSep 24 · 21:28M. Kolbusovsky2.5011118113M. Dlask1.50481191LSep 24 · 20:20M. Dlask1.3693111192M. Kolbusovsky3.00111189113LSep 24 · 19:20M. Dlask1.83711991M. Nemec1.8311911113
O. Sebek10
WOct 6 · 20:20M. Kolbusovsky2.004680O. Sebek1.731111113LOct 6 · 19:50M. Dlask1.50411311143O. Sebek2.50119119122WOct 6 · 18:50O. Sebek2.631111113M. Nemec1.449380LOct 5 · 14:05J. Vintr1.301113113O. Sebek3.1081180WOct 5 · 12:20M. Kolbusovsky1.9110570O. Sebek1.801211113LOct 5 · 11:50S. Matousch1.40611911113O. Sebek2.7511611582LOct 5 · 10:50O. Sebek2.751171181J. Vintr1.4013114113LSep 20 · 09:25M. Nemec1.301013911113O. Sebek3.40121111872LSep 20 · 08:50O. Sebek2.3510119121M. Nemec1.5312611143LSep 20 · 07:20R. Zeman1.3311119113O. Sebek3.00491161
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