TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matej Kovarik vs Miloslav Ullman 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210611119117––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Kovarik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Kovarik above · Miloslav Ullman below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 77 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Matej Kovarik at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Matej Kovarik 1–0 Miloslav Ullman Miloslav Ullman has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2854.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovarik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kovarik 1663 vs Ullman 1671
Ullman
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovarik 80% vs Ullman 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovarik 70% vs Ullman 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovarik +1 · Ullman +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kovarik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ullman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovarik 1.727 / Ullman 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovarik)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256017
Kovarik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 11 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Ullman2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 32 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back31% 12 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKovarik1wins
AwayUllman0wins
Kovarik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKovarikUllmanK − UBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match42.037.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovarikUllmanBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 92 vs 186 / 39652.2%47%48 / 92 vs 186 / 396Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovarikKovarik 1.73/Ullman 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovarik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovarik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMar 18 · 06:45M. Kovarik4271311113M. Ullman371111871
M. Kovarik10
WOct 7 · 06:30M. Kovarik1.7361211113T. Liska2.001110761LOct 7 · 05:30M. Kovarik2.387650L. Adam1.531111113WSep 27 · 17:00O. Mezera1.85811791M. Kovarik1.8511911113WSep 27 · 15:30L. Svoboda1.7311113962M. Kovarik2.00891111113WSep 27 · 15:00M. Kovarik2.101211113S. Rejent1.6710790LSep 27 · 14:00M. Kovarik1.611177101O. Mezera2.2071111102LSep 27 · 08:49L. Heinzl1.571011115113M. Kovarik2.2512791192WSep 27 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.381111123M. Zelinka1.5395100WSep 27 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.38813611113L. Heinzl1.53111111682LSep 27 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.73411591M. Kocvara2.0011611113
M. Ullman10
WOct 7 · 07:00M. Ullman2.201114113L. Adam1.6171280WOct 7 · 06:00M. Ullman1.83811113113T. Liska1.8311581162LOct 1 · 08:43T. Liska1.7371111123M. Ullman2.001176101WOct 1 · 07:15M. Vyskocil1.80811861M. Ullman1.9111711113WOct 1 · 06:45M. Ullman1.80111358113J. Senk1.91611111152LOct 1 · 05:45M. Ullman1.9195100T. Liska1.801111123LSep 30 · 08:48J. Rochowanski2.381111113M. Ullman1.539990WSep 30 · 07:15M. Ullman1.73131113113M. Vana2.001181581WSep 30 · 06:15M. Ullman1.83111184113R. Pisa1.8384111192WSep 30 · 05:15M. Ullman1.611111113J. Rochowanski2.209920
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