TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Adrian Walek vs Jaroslav Schwan 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111210911611––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Walek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdrian Walek above · Jaroslav Schwan below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Adrian Walek at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Walek 10–9 Jaroslav Schwan Jaroslav Schwan has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Walek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Walek 1590 vs Schwan 1592
Schwan
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Walek 40% vs Schwan 60%
Schwan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Walek 40% vs Schwan 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Walek -2 · Schwan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Walek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Walek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWalek 1.80 / Schwan 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Walek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13254756
Walek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 29) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 48 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it68% 36 of 53
Schwan1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 20 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWalek6wins
AwaySchwan4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderWalek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWalek100%4 of 4
AwaySchwan66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Walek4Schwan6n = 10Schwan took 6 of 10
S2Walek8Schwan2n = 10Walek took 8 of 10
S3Walek5Schwan5n = 10split evenly
S4Walek4Schwan4n = 8split evenly
S5Walek3Schwan3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWalekSchwanW − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.339.9+1.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWalekSchwanBasisWin rate · lifetime235 / 469 vs 149 / 31450.1%47.5%235 / 469 vs 149 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WalekWalek 1.80/Schwan 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Walek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Schwan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 15:00A. Walek48111196113J. Schwan4798111182
WSep 26 · 14:30A. Walek4211118123J. Schwan356811101
WJul 22 · 12:59A. Walek48711115143J. Schwan49118711122
WJul 22 · 10:30A. Walek518111011113J. Schwan3911512832
WJun 25 · 11:00A. Walek341112113J. Schwan2481060
LJun 24 · 12:00A. Walek3891111432J. Schwan46114911113
LJun 18 · 10:00A. Walek49911118102J. Schwan46114811123
LApr 27 · 13:01A. Walek268990J. Schwan331111113
LApr 27 · 11:30A. Walek4267111172J. Schwan48111169113
WApr 18 · 09:29A. Walek3511112113J. Schwan32971151
A. Walek10
WOct 7 · 16:00A. Walek1.73114811113J. Stoch2.0071111822LOct 7 · 15:30V. Adamczyk2.20811119113A. Walek1.6111781172LSep 29 · 17:30D. Langer1.6711711113A. Walek2.10711461LSep 29 · 16:00D. Langer1.739111313113A. Walek2.00117111572WSep 29 · 15:00J. Schwan1.9198111182A. Walek1.80111196113WSep 29 · 14:30A. Walek1.5711117113V. Adamczyk2.25981191LSep 28 · 17:00A. Walek2.1091180D. Heczko1.671113113WSep 28 · 16:00A. Walek2.00111211173D. Langer1.738149151LSep 28 · 15:30T. Petrek1.73119118113A. Walek2.0081161182LSep 28 · 14:00A. Walek1.9181161182D. Heczko1.80112117113
J. Schwan10
LOct 7 · 16:30J. Schwan1.5711860V. Adamczyk2.251311113WOct 7 · 15:00J. Schwan1.401111113J. Stoch2.757680LOct 2 · 09:30J. Levicky2.25111113113J. Schwan1.581351191WOct 2 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.80111091192J. Schwan1.91712115113LOct 2 · 07:00J. Levicky2.7511114113J. Schwan1.40781181WOct 2 · 06:30J. Schwan1.671112113J. Mikula2.1041090WOct 1 · 09:30J. Schwan2.101171111123J. Snr1.65411137102WOct 1 · 08:00J. Snr1.507111051J. Schwan2.5011312113WOct 1 · 07:00D. Heczko2.257133101J. Schwan1.57111111123LSep 29 · 15:00J. Schwan1.9198111182A. Walek1.80111196113
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