TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Richard Skacelik vs Jaroslav Schwan 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1171012911115911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Skacelik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Skacelik above · Jaroslav Schwan below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 96 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Richard Skacelik at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Richard Skacelik 20–22 Jaroslav Schwan Richard Skacelik has won 20 of their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5654.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skacelik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-22 in 42
Schwan
Correct
gap of 2 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skacelik 1663 vs Schwan 1591
Skacelik
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skacelik 60% vs Schwan 80%
Schwan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skacelik 60% vs Schwan 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skacelik +1 · Schwan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skacelik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schwan form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkacelik 1.80 / Schwan 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skacelik)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228160
Skacelik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 68 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it71% 51 of 72
Schwan1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 19 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkacelik5wins
AwaySchwan5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkacelik71.4%5 of 7
AwaySchwan100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skacelik7Schwan3n = 10Skacelik took 7 of 10
S2Skacelik3Schwan7n = 10Schwan took 7 of 10
S3Skacelik5Schwan5n = 10split evenly
S4Skacelik4Schwan3n = 7Skacelik took 4 of 7
S5Skacelik2Schwan2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkacelikSchwanSkacelik − SchwanBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.438.4+2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkacelikSchwanBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 490 vs 148 / 31249%47.4%240 / 490 vs 148 / 312Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkacelikSkacelik 1.80/Schwan 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skacelik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Schwan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 08:00R. Skacelik331111113J. Schwan217860
LSep 20 · 08:00R. Skacelik367118101J. Schwan4211811123
WSep 17 · 17:01R. Skacelik52139811113J. Schwan48111111872
WSep 17 · 16:30R. Skacelik4412912113J. Schwan3910111081
LSep 9 · 11:30R. Skacelik44119311102J. Schwan45511116123
WSep 6 · 16:00R. Skacelik351311113J. Schwan2111730
LSep 2 · 15:00R. Skacelik361195111J. Schwan4381111133
WJun 25 · 12:58R. Skacelik541181113113J. Schwan4381171522
LJun 25 · 10:00R. Skacelik4787131182J. Schwan491111115113
LMay 21 · 13:30R. Skacelik239950J. Schwan331111113
R. Skacelik10
LOct 2 · 09:16R. Skacelik1.92711991J. Mikula1.7811611113WOct 2 · 07:30J. Mikula1.7351111772R. Skacelik2.00116411113LOct 2 · 06:00R. Skacelik1.3014881182J. Levicky3.401211117113WSep 30 · 13:30V. Adamczyk2.20671181R. Skacelik1.6111118113LSep 30 · 12:30V. Adamczyk1.8312118113R. Skacelik1.831091181WSep 30 · 11:30R. Skacelik1.8011911113J. Cabak1.91711881WSep 30 · 10:30R. Vavrecka2.00611281R. Skacelik1.7311711113LSep 30 · 09:30R. Skacelik1.7311117482R. Vavrecka2.00581111113WSep 30 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.801111113J. Schwan1.917860WSep 30 · 07:30V. Adamczyk2.631551181R. Skacelik1.4417114113
J. Schwan10
LOct 2 · 09:30J. Levicky2.25111113113J. Schwan1.581351191LOct 2 · 07:00J. Levicky2.7511114113J. Schwan1.40781181WOct 2 · 06:30J. Schwan1.671112113J. Mikula2.1041090WOct 1 · 09:30J. Schwan2.101171111123J. Snr1.65411137102WOct 1 · 08:00J. Snr1.507111051J. Schwan2.5011312113WOct 1 · 07:00D. Heczko2.257133101J. Schwan1.57111111123LOct 1 · 06:30J. Schwan1.7311831292J. Mikula2.009111110113LSep 30 · 08:58J. Schwan1.363118101V. Adamczyk3.0011711123LSep 30 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.801111113J. Schwan1.917860LSep 30 · 07:00R. Vavrecka1.615111310113J. Schwan2.20114111262
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