TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Richard Skacelik vs Radomir Vavrecka 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115118711411811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:24 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeRichard Skacelik to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Skacelik above · Radomir Vavrecka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Richard Skacelik at 54.5%
87 points played in total.
H2H Richard Skacelik 6–5 Radomir Vavrecka Radomir Vavrecka has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Vavrecka beat Skacelik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2454.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skacelik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skacelik 1669 vs Vavrecka 1596
Skacelik
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skacelik 80% vs Vavrecka 60%
Skacelik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skacelik 80% vs Vavrecka 50%
Skacelik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skacelik +2 · Vavrecka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Skacelik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skacelik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkacelik 1.727 / Vavrecka 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Skacelik)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13221144
Skacelik1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 63 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it70% 46 of 66
Vavrecka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 40 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back23% 13 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkacelik5wins
AwayVavrecka5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkacelik71.4%5 of 7
AwayVavrecka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skacelik7Vavrecka3n = 10Skacelik took 7 of 10
S2Skacelik6Vavrecka4n = 10Skacelik took 6 of 10
S3Skacelik2Vavrecka8n = 10Vavrecka took 8 of 10
S4Skacelik3Vavrecka5n = 8Vavrecka took 5 of 8
S5Skacelik2Vavrecka1n = 3Skacelik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkacelikVavreckaS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.538.1−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkacelikVavreckaBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 483 vs 163 / 31248.9%52.2%236 / 483 vs 163 / 312Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkacelikSkacelik 1.73/Vavrecka 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Skacelik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vavrecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 06:00R. Skacelik4371411382R. Vavrecka501112511113
LSep 20 · 09:29R. Skacelik351157121R. Vavrecka4041111143
WSep 20 · 06:30R. Skacelik45111184113R. Vavrecka4037111182
WAug 19 · 10:00R. Skacelik3611113113R. Vavrecka32571191
LAug 4 · 21:28R. Skacelik33911491R. Vavrecka4011711113
WAug 4 · 19:30R. Skacelik3611113113R. Vavrecka29491151
LApr 7 · 19:30R. Skacelik279990R. Vavrecka331111113
WMar 30 · 16:00R. Skacelik331111113R. Vavrecka247890
LMar 27 · 09:00R. Skacelik361178101R. Vavrecka4391111123
WJan 21 · 22:01R. Skacelik511110712113R. Vavrecka50812111092
R. Skacelik10
WSep 30 · 10:30R. Vavrecka2.00611281R. Skacelik1.7311711113WSep 30 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.801111113J. Schwan1.917860WSep 30 · 07:30V. Adamczyk2.631551181R. Skacelik1.4417114113LSep 30 · 06:00R. Skacelik1.6771411382R. Vavrecka2.101112511113WSep 28 · 13:30D. Oborny2.0081111121R. Skacelik1.7211813143WSep 28 · 12:00R. Skacelik1.9111711113T. Petrek1.80311851LSep 28 · 11:30D. Oborny2.5011611113R. Skacelik1.50811861WSep 28 · 10:00R. Skacelik1.67111156113M. Heczko2.1076111172WSep 25 · 09:30R. Skacelik2.00612612123J. Cabak1.7311101110102WSep 25 · 08:00J. Cabak1.73121111992R. Skacelik2.00148911113
R. Vavrecka10
LSep 30 · 10:30R. Vavrecka2.00611281R. Skacelik1.7311711113LSep 30 · 08:30R. Vavrecka2.007760V. Adamczyk1.731111113WSep 30 · 07:00R. Vavrecka1.615111310113J. Schwan2.20114111262WSep 30 · 06:00R. Skacelik1.6771411382R. Vavrecka2.101112511113WSep 26 · 20:59D. Machander2.10471181R. Vavrecka1.6711118113LSep 26 · 20:30R. Vavrecka1.913750A. Walek1.801111113LSep 26 · 19:00R. Vavrecka2.63119881D. Langer1.4481111113WSep 26 · 18:00D. Machander2.2519119782R. Vavrecka1.571791111113WSep 24 · 20:59L. Velicka2.201110861R. Vavrecka1.6191211113LSep 24 · 20:00R. Vavrecka1.67103130V. Adamczyk2.101211153
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.