TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Levicky vs Jaroslav Schwan 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117118411118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:56 and never touched: 69.8% is still 69.8%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Schwan to win
69.8%
69.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Levicky above · Jaroslav Schwan below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Jaroslav Schwan at 69.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Levicky 3–8 Jaroslav Schwan Jakub Levicky has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5669.8%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.6pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Schwan
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Schwan
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Levicky 1583 vs Schwan 1591
Schwan
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Levicky 60% vs Schwan 80%
Schwan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Levicky 50% vs Schwan 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Levicky +2 · Schwan +4
Schwan
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Schwan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Levicky form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLevicky 2.75 / Schwan 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Schwan)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13227981
Levicky2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Schwan1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 45 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it76% 32 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLevicky3wins
AwaySchwan7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSchwan leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLevicky50%3 of 6
AwaySchwan100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Levicky6Schwan4n = 10Levicky took 6 of 10
S2Levicky3Schwan7n = 10Schwan took 7 of 10
S3Levicky3Schwan7n = 10Schwan took 7 of 10
S4Levicky1Schwan3n = 4Schwan took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricLevickySchwanL − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match29.135.6−6.5per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLevickySchwanBasisWin rate · lifetime451 / 895 vs 148 / 31250.4%47.4%451 / 895 vs 148 / 312Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SchwanLevicky 2.75/Schwan 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.8%
Schwan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Levicky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 07:00J. Levicky3711114113J. Schwan34781181
LSep 20 · 08:58J. Levicky154830J. Schwan331111113
LSep 20 · 06:00J. Levicky42119111012J. Schwan48611812113
LSep 15 · 11:00J. Levicky28127631J. Schwan43101111113
WSep 6 · 16:59J. Levicky361312113J. Schwan29111080
WSep 6 · 14:30J. Levicky351311113J. Schwan2611870
LAug 17 · 20:30J. Levicky341193111J. Schwan4051111133
LMar 16 · 13:00J. Levicky156630J. Schwan331111113
LFeb 27 · 08:00J. Levicky2661190J. Schwan351113113
LFeb 22 · 08:30J. Levicky2381140J. Schwan351113113
J. Levicky10
WOct 2 · 06:00R. Skacelik1.3014881182J. Levicky3.401211117113WSep 28 · 17:00J. Levicky1.73138411113D. Oborny2.00111111992LSep 28 · 16:00J. Levicky1.8057100J. Stoch1.911111123LSep 28 · 15:30D. Oborny1.83111210113J. Levicky1.837101251WSep 28 · 14:00J. Levicky1.731111113M. Heczko2.008850LSep 27 · 09:00V. Zidek1.40811118113J. Levicky2.7511651132LSep 27 · 08:00J. Levicky1.80711811M. Heczko1.9111911113WSep 27 · 07:30D. Oborny1.91911891J. Levicky1.8011611113LSep 27 · 06:00J. Levicky2.631311851V. Zidek1.4415711113WSep 26 · 13:00J. Levicky1.131111113V. Adamczyk5.505740
J. Schwan10
WOct 2 · 06:30J. Schwan1.671112113J. Mikula2.1041090WOct 1 · 09:30J. Schwan2.101171111123J. Snr1.65411137102WOct 1 · 08:00J. Snr1.507111051J. Schwan2.5011312113WOct 1 · 07:00D. Heczko2.257133101J. Schwan1.57111111123LOct 1 · 06:30J. Schwan1.7311831292J. Mikula2.009111110113LSep 30 · 08:58J. Schwan1.363118101V. Adamczyk3.0011711123LSep 30 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.801111113J. Schwan1.917860LSep 30 · 07:00R. Vavrecka1.615111310113J. Schwan2.20114111262WSep 30 · 06:30J. Schwan1.501111113V. Adamczyk2.507560WSep 29 · 16:59J. Schwan1.531111123V. Adamczyk2.3856100
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