TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jaroslav Schwan vs Jiri Mikula 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141210119––––
Jiri Mikula
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Schwan to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Schwan above · Jiri Mikula below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 57 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Jaroslav Schwan at 56.2%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Schwan 6–3 Jiri Mikula Jiri Mikula has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2756.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Schwan
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Schwan
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schwan 1591 vs Mikula 1473
Schwan
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schwan 60% vs Mikula 20%
Schwan
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schwan 60% vs Mikula 20%
Schwan
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schwan +3 · Mikula -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Schwan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mikula form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchwan 1.666 / Mikula 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Schwan)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13226729
Schwan1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 45 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it76% 32 of 42
Mikula2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 7 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back15% 2 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSchwan6wins
AwayMikula3wins
6 of 9 to a deciderSchwan leads 6–3, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchwan66.7%4 of 6
AwayMikula33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schwan6Mikula3n = 9Schwan took 6 of 9
S2Schwan6Mikula3n = 9Schwan took 6 of 9
S3Schwan3Mikula6n = 9Mikula took 6 of 9
S4Schwan4Mikula4n = 8split evenly
S5Schwan4Mikula2n = 6Schwan took 4 of 6
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricSchwanMikulaS − MBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match45.142.1+3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchwanMikulaBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 312 vs 27 / 8047.4%33.8%148 / 312 vs 27 / 80Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SchwanSchwan 1.67/Mikula 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Schwan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Schwan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 2 · 06:30J. Schwan341112113J. Mikula2341090
LOct 1 · 06:30J. Schwan4311831292J. Mikula529111110113
LApr 22 · 12:30J. Schwan391281181J. Mikula3914113113
WFeb 2 · 14:00J. Schwan49119711113J. Mikula4591111862
WFeb 2 · 13:30J. Schwan47511911113J. Mikula4511511992
WDec 10 · 13:00J. Schwan47151164113J. Mikula52138111192
LDec 7 · 13:30J. Schwan51111113972J. Mikula47641511113
WNov 23 · 11:30J. Schwan44111111113J. Mikula30132691
WOct 8 · 16:30J. Schwan521111136113J. Mikula4638151192
J. Schwan10
LOct 2 · 07:00J. Levicky2.7511114113J. Schwan1.40781181WOct 1 · 09:30J. Schwan2.101171111123J. Snr1.65411137102WOct 1 · 08:00J. Snr1.507111051J. Schwan2.5011312113WOct 1 · 07:00D. Heczko2.257133101J. Schwan1.57111111123LOct 1 · 06:30J. Schwan1.7311831292J. Mikula2.009111110113LSep 30 · 08:58J. Schwan1.363118101V. Adamczyk3.0011711123LSep 30 · 08:00R. Skacelik1.801111113J. Schwan1.917860LSep 30 · 07:00R. Vavrecka1.615111310113J. Schwan2.20114111262WSep 30 · 06:30J. Schwan1.501111113V. Adamczyk2.507560WSep 29 · 16:59J. Schwan1.531111123V. Adamczyk2.3856100
J. Mikula10
LOct 2 · 07:30J. Mikula1.7351111772R. Skacelik2.00116411113LOct 1 · 08:59J. Mikula2.50611481D. Heczko1.5011611113LOct 1 · 08:30D. Heczko1.73811711113J. Mikula2.0011811782LOct 1 · 07:30J. Mikula2.631261581J. Snr1.44101117113WOct 1 · 06:30J. Schwan1.7311831292J. Mikula2.009111110113LSep 24 · 08:59D. Oborny1.61111111133J. Mikula2.207135111LSep 24 · 08:30J. Mikula1.730850D. Oborny2.001111113LSep 24 · 07:00J. Mikula2.256570J. Snr1.571111113LSep 24 · 06:00A. Rinka2.1061111113J. Mikula1.67117651LSep 23 · 09:30J. Mikula1.8361115592V. Adamczyk1.831171311113
Upcoming Matches
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J. Mikula
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