TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Daniel Langer vs Adrian Walek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117711114116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:15 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Langer to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Daniel Langer @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingDaniel Langer above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Daniel Langer at 59.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Langer 6–7 Adrian Walek Daniel Langer has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Langer beat Walek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:15What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Langer
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1719 vs Walek 1598
Langer
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 60% vs Walek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 70% vs Walek 40%
Langer
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer +3 · Walek -1
Langer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Langer) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Walek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 1.67 / Walek 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Langer)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13218137
Langer1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 96 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it98% 55 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it85% 69 of 81
Walek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 82 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back33% 27 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back16% 6 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger5wins
AwayWalek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger66.7%2 of 3
AwayWalek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer3Walek7n = 10Walek took 7 of 10
S2Langer3Walek7n = 10Walek took 7 of 10
S3Langer5Walek5n = 10split evenly
S4Langer5Walek3n = 8Langer took 5 of 8
S5Langer3Walek1n = 4Langer took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerWalekL − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.140.3−0.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 189 vs 235 / 46867.2%50.2%127 / 189 vs 235 / 468Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LangerLanger 1.67/Walek 2.10
Hit
What we said
59%
Langer · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Daniel Langer @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
3–1
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 16:00D. Langer579111313113A. Walek51117111572
LSep 28 · 16:00D. Langer468149151A. Walek51111211173
WSep 26 · 21:30D. Langer48116911113A. Walek3871111452
WSep 26 · 18:30D. Langer4071111113A. Walek33119761
LSep 26 · 17:30D. Langer186750A. Walek331111113
WSep 26 · 16:30D. Langer3911611113A. Walek30711661
LSep 25 · 14:00D. Langer2310580A. Walek341211113
LSep 19 · 07:00D. Langer35117981A. Walek3961111113
LSep 8 · 15:00D. Langer46471111132A. Walek50111176153
WSep 5 · 12:30D. Langer49791111113A. Walek4411116972
D. Langer10
WSep 29 · 16:00D. Langer1.739111313113A. Walek2.00117111572WSep 29 · 15:30V. Adamczyk2.6310960D. Langer1.441211113WSep 29 · 14:00D. Langer1.571111113J. Schwan2.258580LSep 28 · 17:30D. Langer1.579970T. Petrek2.251111113LSep 28 · 16:00A. Walek2.00111211173D. Langer1.738149151WSep 28 · 15:00D. Heczko2.7561111262D. Langer1.40119211113WSep 28 · 14:30D. Langer1.6711115113T. Petrek2.10751181LSep 28 · 13:28D. Langer1.73128161162J. Simecek2.001011185113WSep 28 · 12:00D. Langer2.1011117113J. Simecek1.67841191WSep 28 · 11:30J. Schwan2.63118101162D. Langer1.44711127113
A. Walek10
LSep 29 · 16:00D. Langer1.739111313113A. Walek2.00117111572WSep 29 · 15:00J. Schwan1.9198111182A. Walek1.80111196113WSep 29 · 14:30A. Walek1.5711117113V. Adamczyk2.25981191LSep 28 · 17:00A. Walek2.1091180D. Heczko1.671113113WSep 28 · 16:00A. Walek2.00111211173D. Langer1.738149151LSep 28 · 15:30T. Petrek1.73119118113A. Walek2.0081161182LSep 28 · 14:00A. Walek1.9181161182D. Heczko1.80112117113LSep 26 · 21:30D. Langer1.80116911113A. Walek1.9171111452WSep 26 · 20:30R. Vavrecka1.913750A. Walek1.801111113LSep 26 · 19:30A. Walek1.911011851D. Machander1.8012711113
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