TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kamil Smolka vs Sebastian Juzek 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119119––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:28 and never touched: 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeKamil Smolka to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
118119119––––
H2H Kamil Smolka 46–34 Sebastian Juzek Sebastian Juzek has won 34 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2861.8%Our read65.4%to break even at 1.53
short by 3.6pp65.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.53 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Smolka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
46-34 in 80
Smolka
Correct
gap of 12 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smolka 1387 vs Juzek 1300
Smolka
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smolka 60% vs Juzek 40%
Smolka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smolka 40% vs Juzek 60%
Juzek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smolka -1 · Juzek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Smolka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmolka 1.53 / Juzek 2.35
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Smolka)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13253023
Smolka1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 50 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it64% 36 of 56
Juzek2.35
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 96 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back19% 31 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmolka6wins
AwayJuzek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSmolka leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmolka60%3 of 5
AwayJuzek40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smolka5Juzek5n = 10split evenly
S2Smolka6Juzek4n = 10Smolka took 6 of 10
S3Smolka7Juzek3n = 10Smolka took 7 of 10
S4Smolka4Juzek5n = 9Juzek took 5 of 9
S5Smolka2Juzek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmolkaJuzekS − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.038.8+4.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmolkaJuzekBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 442 vs 311 / 74851.6%41.6%228 / 442 vs 311 / 748Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SmolkaSmolka 1.53/Juzek 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.8%
Smolka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smolka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 06:45K. Smolka331111113S. Juzek268990
WAug 26 · 16:30K. Smolka4011711113S. Juzek32511881
WAug 26 · 06:45K. Smolka49711128113S. Juzek43115101162
LAug 19 · 12:45K. Smolka395611171S. Juzek4511114193
WAug 19 · 10:20K. Smolka528111011123S. Juzek41113125102
WAug 12 · 16:20K. Smolka3811511113S. Juzek30711481
LAug 12 · 06:45K. Smolka521111713102S. Juzek50481115123
LAug 5 · 14:20K. Smolka46111168102S. Juzek50881111123
LAug 5 · 06:20K. Smolka386911121S. Juzek4411118143
WJul 29 · 14:20K. Smolka43101111113S. Juzek27126271
K. Smolka10
LOct 6 · 05:30K. Smolka2.10813771K. Hetnar1.65111111113WAug 26 · 16:30S. Juzek2.25511881K. Smolka1.5711711113LAug 26 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.431161111113K. Smolka2.5541113662WAug 26 · 14:45K. Smolka1.6611119113R. Gajda2.05961171WAug 26 · 13:10K. Smolka1.78811138113J. Pelka1.93119111152LAug 26 · 12:20K. Adamus1.9891612113K. Smolka1.7311141091LAug 26 · 11:05K. Smolka1.6053111142R. Gajda2.20111174113LAug 26 · 09:30K. Smolka2.458550R. Skotniczny1.491111113LAug 26 · 08:20K. Smolka1.9511991392K. Adamus1.754111111113WAug 26 · 06:45K. Smolka1.70711128113S. Juzek1.95115101162
S. Juzek10
WOct 6 · 05:55S. Juzek—851211113M. Jozefiak—111110682LSep 29 · 16:20S. Juzek2.908830O. Jadach1.351111113LSep 29 · 15:05S. Juzek1.9881111852P. Polok1.75116211113WSep 29 · 13:55S. Juzek1.9011911113M. Baron1.80611561LSep 29 · 12:45O. Vincenec1.9011116113S. Juzek1.80671181WSep 29 · 11:55S. Juzek2.001111113W. Ptak1.707980WSep 29 · 10:20S. Juzek1.8561111113O. Vincenec1.85116761WSep 29 · 09:05S. Juzek3.15111199113P. Polok1.3078111162LAug 26 · 16:30S. Juzek2.25511881K. Smolka1.5711711113LAug 26 · 06:45K. Smolka1.70711128113S. Juzek1.95115101162
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