TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Moravec vs Dalibor Velky Jr 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111517114119411
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:38 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 15-17
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 100 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Michal Moravec at 56.2%
100 points played in total.
H2H Michal Moravec 7–10 Dalibor Velky Jr Michal Moravec has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:3856.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Velky Jr
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1594 vs Velky Jr 1618
Velky Jr
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 40% vs Velky Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 50% vs Velky Jr 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +2 · Velky Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.666 / Velky Jr 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Moravec)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251707
Moravec1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite61% won 59 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it75% 35 of 47
Velky Jr2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 118 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec3wins
AwayVelky Jr7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVelky Jr leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec40%2 of 5
AwayVelky Jr80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec5Velky Jr5n = 10split evenly
S2Moravec2Velky Jr8n = 10Velky Jr took 8 of 10
S3Moravec6Velky Jr4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S4Moravec3Velky Jr4n = 7Velky Jr took 4 of 7
S5Moravec2Velky Jr4n = 6Velky Jr took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecVelky JrM − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.342.7−1.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecVelky JrBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 422 vs 299 / 60251%49.7%215 / 422 vs 299 / 602Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.67/Velky Jr 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Velky Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 06:40M. Moravec48715111142D. Velky Jr52111749113
WSep 13 · 18:10M. Moravec51991111113D. Velky Jr4711119792
LAug 29 · 14:45M. Moravec48139511102D. Velky Jr541111119123
WJul 30 · 17:30M. Moravec51111198123D. Velky Jr48881111102
LJul 30 · 14:15M. Moravec30101190D. Velky Jr361213113
LJul 1 · 10:10M. Moravec236980D. Velky Jr331111113
WMay 20 · 12:10M. Moravec331111113D. Velky Jr166730
LMay 10 · 18:15M. Moravec35871191D. Velky Jr4211119113
LApr 23 · 12:45M. Moravec46119115102D. Velky Jr47711611123
LApr 23 · 11:40M. Moravec48126111092D. Velky Jr521011812113
M. Moravec10
LOct 6 · 07:40M. Moravec2.004880T. Krenek1.731111113WOct 6 · 05:40M. Moravec1.67101211123R. Sedlacek2.1012105101WOct 5 · 12:45J. Skvrna1.8039130M. Moravec1.911111153LOct 5 · 12:15M. Moravec1.83651391T. Krenek1.83111111113LOct 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.7316611163M. Moravec2.0014119141LOct 5 · 10:15R. Benes1.91111511113M. Moravec1.808131381LOct 3 · 17:19M. Moravec1.61911701M. Raska2.2011811113WOct 3 · 15:40M. Moravec1.80911148113R. Sedlacek1.91119121192WOct 3 · 14:40M. Moravec1.537101111113M. Raska2.3811124962LOct 3 · 13:40M. Moravec1.5791111582A. Cizek2.25117411113
D. Velky Jr10
WOct 6 · 08:10D. Velky Jr1.8071111133R. Sedlacek1.911187111LOct 6 · 06:10T. Krenek1.67711511113D. Velky Jr2.1011911952LOct 4 · 17:15R. Benes2.101113410153D. Velky Jr1.678111112132WOct 4 · 16:10D. Velky Jr1.73211511113R. Solle2.0011711982WOct 4 · 14:40L. Dzida2.00911881D. Velky Jr1.7311611113LOct 4 · 14:10R. Benes2.2091111113D. Velky Jr1.61118361LOct 3 · 13:15D. Velky Jr1.6111101291J. Skvrna2.2051214113WOct 3 · 12:15J. Krupnik1.53122120D. Velky Jr2.381411143LOct 3 · 11:15D. Velky Jr2.2091171172J. Skvrna1.61119119113WOct 3 · 09:45M. Macurak1.67811231D. Velky Jr2.1011711113
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