TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ales Brandtl Snr vs Tomas Liska 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1119111141012115
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:08 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Brandtl Snr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Brandtl Snr above · Tomas Liska below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 85 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Ales Brandtl Snr at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Snr 0–2 Tomas Liska Ales Brandtl Snr has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:0854.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Liska
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Snr 1663 vs Liska 1648
Snr
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 100% vs Liska 60%
Snr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 70% vs Liska 40%
Snr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr +5 · Liska -1
Snr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Snr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.909 / Liska 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Snr)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13251286
Snr1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 04)
Won last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 9 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Liska1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite49% won 37 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it66% 27 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSnr0wins
AwayLiska2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLiska leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSnrLiskaS − LBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.046.5−6.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrLiskaBasisWin rate · lifetime18 / 47 vs 401 / 86638.3%46.3%18 / 47 vs 401 / 866Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.91/Liska 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 3 · 17:45A. Snr31119561T. Liska4071111113
LJun 9 · 17:45A. Snr49812711112T. Liska531110118133
A. Snr10
LOct 6 · 08:19R. Pisa2.3871311123A. Snr1.5311115101WOct 6 · 07:15A. Snr1.5711912113R. Pisa2.256111071LOct 6 · 06:15A. Snr2.00781191M. Makara1.7311119113WOct 4 · 08:43A. Snr2.10811114123L. Dobias1.67114911102WOct 4 · 07:45A. Snr2.0071111113L. Rulc1.73115661WOct 4 · 06:15L. Dobias1.5057120A. Snr2.501111143WOct 4 · 05:45M. Makara2.00691121A. Snr1.7311119113WSep 18 · 20:13L. Dobias1.4491190A. Snr2.631113113LSep 18 · 19:15A. Snr2.00671181J. Krames Sr1.7311118113LSep 18 · 18:15A. Snr2.6369121142L. Dobias1.441111109113
T. Liska10
WOct 6 · 07:45M. Makara1.739780T. Liska2.001111113LOct 6 · 06:45R. Pisa1.8311119113T. Liska1.83331131LOct 5 · 12:44T. Liska2.258121371O. Kaderabek1.57111015113WOct 5 · 11:45M. Makara1.83931171T. Liska1.8311116113WOct 5 · 10:45L. Rulc1.61117111182T. Liska2.20911913113WOct 5 · 09:15O. Kaderabek1.6714881132T. Liska2.101211119113LOct 4 · 20:19S. Rejent1.8311911113T. Liska1.83911771LOct 4 · 19:15T. Liska1.40111011882O. Mezera2.75512311113LOct 4 · 18:15T. Liska2.108660S. Rejent1.671111113LOct 4 · 17:15T. Liska2.2081191252L. Veigl1.611151110113
Upcoming Matches
A. Snr
Nothing scheduled
T. Liska
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