Vitalii Krokhmal vs Viacheslav Kovalenko 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 6Finished

Vitalii Krokhmal

Home

2.10

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 3

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

1189116111012––

Viacheslav Kovalenko

Away

1.67

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:16 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%

Graded at full time

Viacheslav Kovalenko to win

55.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingVitalii Krokhmal above · Viacheslav Kovalenko below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 10-12

Point 78 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Viacheslav Kovalenko at 55.8%

78 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 22:16

55.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 4.2pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Kovalenko

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Krokhmal 1670 vs Kovalenko 1602

Krokhmal

Wrong

both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Krokhmal 20% vs Kovalenko 20%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Krokhmal 20% vs Kovalenko 30%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Krokhmal -3 · Kovalenko +1

Krokhmal

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Kovalenko) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kovalenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKrokhmal 2.10 / Kovalenko 1.666

Signal prob.44% / 56%

Edge (Kovalenko)-4.2pp (anti-value)

Setka Cup · #13250601

Krokhmal2.10

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 152 days ago (May 08) · back after a break

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog44% won 100 of 227

Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 117

Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 57

Kovalenko1.67

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 01)

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As favourite59% won 55 of 93

Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33

Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricKrokhmalKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 422 vs 186 / 42446.5%43.9%196 / 422 vs 186 / 424Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Kovalenko

Krokhmal 2.10/Kovalenko 1.67

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

55.8%

Kovalenko · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Kovalenko won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

V. Krokhmal10