TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Krokhmal vs Volodymyr Kaidakov 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
16141181210––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:33 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Kaidakov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Volodymyr Kaidakov @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is goingVitalii Krokhmal above · Volodymyr Kaidakov below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 71 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Volodymyr Kaidakov at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Krokhmal 5–14 Volodymyr Kaidakov Vitalii Krokhmal has won 5 of their 19 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:3354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kaidakov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-14 in 19
Kaidakov
Wrong
gap of 9 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krokhmal 1654 vs Kaidakov 1703
Kaidakov
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krokhmal 20% vs Kaidakov 80%
Kaidakov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krokhmal 50% vs Kaidakov 70%
Kaidakov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krokhmal -4 · Kaidakov +1
Krokhmal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kaidakov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaidakov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrokhmal 1.909 / Kaidakov 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kaidakov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229122
Krokhmal1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 99 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Kaidakov1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 61 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrokhmal3wins
AwayKaidakov7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKaidakov leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrokhmal33.3%1 of 3
AwayKaidakov71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krokhmal3Kaidakov7n = 10Kaidakov took 7 of 10
S2Krokhmal4Kaidakov6n = 10Kaidakov took 6 of 10
S3Krokhmal4Kaidakov6n = 10Kaidakov took 6 of 10
S4Krokhmal5Kaidakov4n = 9Krokhmal took 5 of 9
S5Krokhmal2Kaidakov3n = 5Kaidakov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrokhmalKaidakovKrokhmal − KaidakovBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.444.4−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrokhmalKaidakovBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 421 vs 278 / 52146.3%53.4%195 / 421 vs 278 / 521Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaidakovKrokhmal 1.91/Kaidakov 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Kaidakov · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Volodymyr Kaidakov @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
3–0
Krokhmal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 17:35V. Krokhmal334111171V. Kaidakov4011135113
WOct 1 · 01:30V. Krokhmal3911134113V. Kaidakov328111121
LJun 19 · 06:05V. Krokhmal177190V. Kaidakov331111113
LJun 18 · 17:35V. Krokhmal30561181V. Kaidakov4211119113
WJun 17 · 23:30V. Krokhmal521151211133V. Kaidakov541311109112
LJun 5 · 11:05V. Krokhmal4441211892V. Kaidakov501110711113
LJun 4 · 13:05V. Krokhmal28512651V. Kaidakov43111011113
LJun 4 · 02:30V. Krokhmal5211991672V. Kaidakov547111114113
LMay 29 · 11:05V. Krokhmal3911941142V. Kaidakov47611118113
WMay 28 · 15:35V. Krokhmal50611911133V. Kaidakov49117119112
V. Krokhmal10
LOct 2 · 09:35M. Loboda1.83141111113V. Krokhmal1.83169591LOct 2 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.671111133V. Krokhmal2.1046110LOct 2 · 06:35V. Krokhmal1.91871171V. Slozka1.8011117113LOct 2 · 05:35A. Nazrin1.911111113V. Krokhmal1.807490WOct 1 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi2.508880V. Krokhmal1.501111113LOct 1 · 17:35V. Krokhmal2.104111171V. Kaidakov1.6711135113WOct 1 · 15:35A. Nazrin1.9111118492V. Krokhmal1.80761111113WOct 1 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak2.1011970V. Krokhmal1.671311113WOct 1 · 12:35M. Loboda1.831110861V. Krokhmal1.8371211113WOct 1 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.3891111982V. Krokhmal1.53116611113
V. Kaidakov10
WOct 2 · 10:05V. Kaidakov1.83911118133V. Slozka1.83114911112LOct 2 · 08:05A. Nazrin1.831111133V. Kaidakov1.8358110WOct 2 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.7391211111V. Kaidakov2.00111013133WOct 2 · 05:05M. Loboda1.91271161V. Kaidakov1.8011113113WOct 1 · 18:35A. Nazrin1.8091141152V. Kaidakov1.91118118113WOct 1 · 17:35V. Krokhmal2.104111171V. Kaidakov1.6711135113LOct 1 · 16:05M. Loboda2.001114113V. Kaidakov1.7361280LOct 1 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.25714113113V. Kaidakov1.57111271192WOct 1 · 12:05Y. Vorsuliak1.91311131092V. Kaidakov1.801181112113WOct 1 · 02:30R. Konkulovskyi1.73712351V. Kaidakov2.00111011113
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