TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Myroslav Loboda vs Volodymyr Kaidakov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
211711113611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:00 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Kaidakov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMyroslav Loboda above · Volodymyr Kaidakov below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 62 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Volodymyr Kaidakov at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Myroslav Loboda 42–71 Volodymyr Kaidakov Myroslav Loboda has won 42 of their 113 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Loboda beat Kaidakov 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:0054.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kaidakov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
42-71 in 113
Kaidakov
Correct
gap of 29 in 113, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Loboda 1674 vs Kaidakov 1680
Kaidakov
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Loboda 40% vs Kaidakov 60%
Kaidakov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Loboda 40% vs Kaidakov 60%
Kaidakov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Loboda -2 · Kaidakov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kaidakov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Loboda form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLoboda 1.909 / Kaidakov 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kaidakov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229258
Loboda1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 83 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Kaidakov1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 61 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLoboda5wins
AwayKaidakov5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLoboda100%5 of 5
AwayKaidakov100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Loboda5Kaidakov5n = 10split evenly
S2Loboda5Kaidakov5n = 10split evenly
S3Loboda6Kaidakov4n = 10Loboda took 6 of 10
S4Loboda4Kaidakov3n = 7Loboda took 4 of 7
S5Loboda1Kaidakov2n = 3Kaidakov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobodaKaidakovL − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.837.5+1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobodaKaidakovBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 962 vs 278 / 52251.5%53.3%495 / 962 vs 278 / 522Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaidakovLoboda 1.91/Kaidakov 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kaidakov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kaidakov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 16:05M. Loboda361114113V. Kaidakov2661280
LOct 1 · 00:00M. Loboda4339111192V. Kaidakov46111149113
LAug 14 · 05:05M. Loboda388111091V. Kaidakov4011612113
WAug 13 · 17:05M. Loboda47118116113V. Kaidakov4591171172
WAug 13 · 00:30M. Loboda4211614113V. Kaidakov365111281
WAug 11 · 01:15M. Loboda3911116113V. Kaidakov29941151
LAug 9 · 20:45M. Loboda229760V. Kaidakov331111113
WAug 7 · 08:35M. Loboda331111113V. Kaidakov207580
LAug 6 · 17:05M. Loboda55159111192V. Kaidakov57171199113
LAug 6 · 00:30M. Loboda333118111V. Kaidakov4311811133
M. Loboda10
LOct 1 · 18:05Y. Vorsuliak2.631111113M. Loboda1.446530LOct 1 · 17:05M. Loboda1.61121111592D. Shchegelskyi2.20148411113WOct 1 · 16:05M. Loboda2.001114113V. Kaidakov1.7361280WOct 1 · 14:35M. Loboda1.73591211113A. Nazrin2.00111110892LOct 1 · 12:35M. Loboda1.831110861V. Krokhmal1.8371211113LOct 1 · 02:00Y. Vorsuliak2.6317411113M. Loboda1.441511651WOct 1 · 01:00M. Loboda1.61121188123D. Shchegelskyi2.201091111102LOct 1 · 00:00M. Loboda2.0039111192V. Kaidakov1.73111149113WSep 30 · 22:30M. Loboda2.3871311113R. Konkulovskyi1.531111451LSep 30 · 20:30M. Loboda1.8381260V. Krokhmal1.831114113
V. Kaidakov10
WOct 2 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.7391211111V. Kaidakov2.00111013133WOct 1 · 18:35A. Nazrin1.8091141152V. Kaidakov1.91118118113WOct 1 · 17:35V. Krokhmal2.104111171V. Kaidakov1.6711135113LOct 1 · 16:05M. Loboda2.001114113V. Kaidakov1.7361280LOct 1 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.25714113113V. Kaidakov1.57111271192WOct 1 · 12:05Y. Vorsuliak1.91311131092V. Kaidakov1.801181112113WOct 1 · 02:30R. Konkulovskyi1.73712351V. Kaidakov2.00111011113LOct 1 · 01:30V. Krokhmal2.2011134113V. Kaidakov1.618111121WOct 1 · 00:00M. Loboda2.0039111192V. Kaidakov1.73111149113WSep 30 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi2.257911111V. Kaidakov1.5711118133
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