TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Iurii Hrekh vs Volodymyr Kaidakov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911121011131113––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:59 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeIurii Hrekh to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Volodymyr Kaidakov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 90 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Iurii Hrekh at 54.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 13–17 Volodymyr Kaidakov Iurii Hrekh has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5954.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hrekh
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-17 in 30
Kaidakov
Correct
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1742 vs Kaidakov 1705
Hrekh
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 60% vs Kaidakov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 60% vs Kaidakov 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh -1 · Kaidakov +3
Kaidakov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hrekh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 1.727 / Kaidakov 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hrekh)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229153
Hrekh1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 164 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it98% 98 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it82% 128 of 157
Kaidakov2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog57% won 13 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh4wins
AwayKaidakov6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKaidakov leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh50%3 of 6
AwayKaidakov75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh6Kaidakov4n = 10Hrekh took 6 of 10
S2Hrekh4Kaidakov6n = 10Kaidakov took 6 of 10
S3Hrekh3Kaidakov6n = 9Kaidakov took 6 of 9
S4Hrekh1Kaidakov3n = 4Kaidakov took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhKaidakovH − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.334.0−1.7per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhKaidakovBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 578 vs 277 / 51952.6%53.4%304 / 578 vs 277 / 519Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrekhHrekh 1.73/Kaidakov 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Hrekh · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kaidakov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 2 · 06:05I. Hrekh4391211111V. Kaidakov47111013133
WAug 14 · 06:05I. Hrekh331111113V. Kaidakov187380
LAug 13 · 15:05I. Hrekh31116861V. Kaidakov4071111113
WAug 13 · 02:30I. Hrekh331111113V. Kaidakov164660
LAug 10 · 23:15I. Hrekh2210390V. Kaidakov341211113
LAug 9 · 21:45I. Hrekh2795130V. Kaidakov371111153
LJun 17 · 21:00I. Hrekh26116451V. Kaidakov4291111113
LJun 5 · 09:05I. Hrekh4011751162V. Kaidakov45611116113
WJun 4 · 16:35I. Hrekh361114113V. Kaidakov2761290
I. Hrekh10
LOct 2 · 04:35I. Hrekh1.61118111052V. Slozka2.20711412113WOct 1 · 10:35I. Hrekh1.731111113V. Slozka2.005260LOct 1 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.5710880O. Rodin2.251211113WOct 1 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.8081111113O. Pohonov1.91113781WOct 1 · 06:05I. Hrekh2.101411113I. Sukovatyi1.6712730WOct 1 · 04:35I. Hrekh1.911111123A. Romanenko1.8057100LSep 30 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.679970V. Slozka2.101111113WSep 30 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.731111113B. Chaikovskyi2.009760LSep 30 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.80101171182O. Pohonov1.91125113113WSep 30 · 13:35I. Hrekh2.20111110113I. Sukovatyi1.61961221
V. Kaidakov10
WOct 2 · 05:05M. Loboda1.91271161V. Kaidakov1.8011113113WOct 1 · 18:35A. Nazrin1.8091141152V. Kaidakov1.91118118113WOct 1 · 17:35V. Krokhmal2.104111171V. Kaidakov1.6711135113LOct 1 · 16:05M. Loboda2.001114113V. Kaidakov1.7361280LOct 1 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.25714113113V. Kaidakov1.57111271192WOct 1 · 12:05Y. Vorsuliak1.91311131092V. Kaidakov1.801181112113WOct 1 · 02:30R. Konkulovskyi1.73712351V. Kaidakov2.00111011113LOct 1 · 01:30V. Krokhmal2.2011134113V. Kaidakov1.618111121WOct 1 · 00:00M. Loboda2.0039111192V. Kaidakov1.73111149113WSep 30 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi2.257911111V. Kaidakov1.5711118133
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