TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Iurii Hrekh vs Andrii Romanenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151171210––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:02 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Romanenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Andrii Romanenko @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Andrii Romanenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 56 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Andrii Romanenko at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 15–20 Andrii Romanenko Iurii Hrekh has won 15 of their 35 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Romanenko beat Hrekh 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 03:0254.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Romanenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-20 in 35
Romanenko
Wrong
gap of 5 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1734 vs Romanenko 1753
Romanenko
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 40% vs Romanenko 80%
Romanenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 50% vs Romanenko 70%
Romanenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh -1 · Romanenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Romanenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romanenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 1.909 / Romanenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Romanenko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223747
Hrekh1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 85 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back20% 20 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 55
Romanenko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 165 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it94% 84 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it81% 128 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh4wins
AwayRomanenko6wins
Romanenko leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh75%3 of 4
AwayRomanenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh4Romanenko6n = 10Romanenko took 6 of 10
S2Hrekh4Romanenko6n = 10Romanenko took 6 of 10
S3Hrekh4Romanenko6n = 10Romanenko took 6 of 10
S4Hrekh2Romanenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhRomanenkoH − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.732.9−1.2per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhRomanenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime300 / 571 vs 320 / 59852.5%53.5%300 / 571 vs 320 / 598Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RomanenkoHrekh 1.91/Romanenko 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Romanenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Andrii Romanenko @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
3–0
Hrekh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 12:05I. Hrekh315111051A. Romanenko4311912113
WSep 17 · 10:35I. Hrekh331111113A. Romanenko177460
LSep 16 · 13:35I. Hrekh29712100A. Romanenko371114123
LSep 4 · 06:05I. Hrekh2671180A. Romanenko351113113
LSep 3 · 13:35I. Hrekh431581281A. Romanenko49131114113
WSep 2 · 23:00I. Hrekh43101111113A. Romanenko31128921
LAug 30 · 20:15I. Hrekh204970A. Romanenko331111113
WAug 20 · 08:05I. Hrekh341211113A. Romanenko2210570
WAug 19 · 15:05I. Hrekh4211911113A. Romanenko29311691
LAug 8 · 23:15I. Hrekh164390A. Romanenko331111113
I. Hrekh10
LSep 30 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.679970V. Slozka2.101111113WSep 30 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.731111113B. Chaikovskyi2.009760LSep 30 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.80101171182O. Pohonov1.91125113113WSep 30 · 13:35I. Hrekh2.20111110113I. Sukovatyi1.61961221LSep 30 · 12:05I. Hrekh1.835111051A. Romanenko1.8311912113WSep 29 · 02:15I. Hrekh2.2011411113M. Loboda1.61411481LSep 29 · 00:45I. Hrekh1.53791171R. Konkulovskyi2.3811118113WSep 28 · 23:15I. Hrekh1.67111111113O. Rodin2.10138491LSep 28 · 21:45I. Hrekh1.615630V. Slozka2.201111113WSep 28 · 20:15I. Hrekh1.6111118113V. Krokhmal2.20791161
A. Romanenko10
WSep 30 · 18:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501271011102A. Romanenko2.501011127123LSep 30 · 17:35I. Sukovatyi1.671111113A. Romanenko2.107560WSep 30 · 16:05V. Slozka2.2511951172A. Romanenko1.57411119113WSep 30 · 14:05O. Pohonov1.50910131182A. Romanenko2.501112118113WSep 30 · 12:05I. Hrekh1.835111051A. Romanenko1.8311912113WSep 30 · 02:30A. Romanenko2.101111113I. Sukovatyi1.677630WSep 30 · 00:30R. Konkulovskyi2.38491111102A. Romanenko1.53111188123LSep 29 · 23:30A. Romanenko2.63101111942O. Pohonov1.44124811113LSep 29 · 22:30B. Chaikovskyi1.50871111113A. Romanenko2.5011112692WSep 29 · 21:00A. Romanenko1.831161111113O. Rodin1.8391113812
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