TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Pohonov vs Andrii Romanenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91110121311118811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Pohonov to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Pohonov above · Andrii Romanenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 104 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Oleksandr Pohonov at 63.7%
104 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Pohonov 48–23 Andrii Romanenko Andrii Romanenko has won 23 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5863.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Pohonov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
48-23 in 71
Pohonov
Wrong
gap of 25 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohonov 1762 vs Romanenko 1735
Pohonov
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohonov 80% vs Romanenko 60%
Pohonov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohonov 50% vs Romanenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohonov -1 · Romanenko +3
Romanenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Pohonov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romanenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohonov 1.50 / Romanenko 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Pohonov)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218904
Pohonov1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 187 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it93% 96 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it78% 136 of 174
Romanenko2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 78 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohonov7wins
AwayRomanenko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPohonov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohonov87.5%7 of 8
AwayRomanenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohonov8Romanenko2n = 10Pohonov took 8 of 10
S2Pohonov5Romanenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Pohonov6Romanenko4n = 10Pohonov took 6 of 10
S4Pohonov4Romanenko2n = 6Pohonov took 4 of 6
S5Pohonov2Romanenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohonovRomanenkoP − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.937.0+3.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohonovRomanenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime292 / 563 vs 317 / 59451.9%53.4%292 / 563 vs 317 / 594Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PohonovPohonov 1.50/Romanenko 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Pohonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Romanenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 23:30O. Pohonov46124811113A. Romanenko45101111942
WSep 26 · 23:15O. Pohonov331111113A. Romanenko198560
WSep 24 · 10:05O. Pohonov4111811113A. Romanenko32911481
LSep 23 · 17:05O. Pohonov269980A. Romanenko331111113
WSep 22 · 23:30O. Pohonov331111113A. Romanenko219930
WSep 19 · 21:45O. Pohonov45111011133A. Romanenko397129111
LSep 17 · 05:05O. Pohonov58151511892A. Romanenko591713711113
WSep 16 · 17:35O. Pohonov531110911123A. Romanenko49812118102
LSep 12 · 21:15O. Pohonov4111114872A. Romanenko50891111113
WSep 10 · 11:35O. Pohonov331111113A. Romanenko238780
O. Pohonov10
WSep 30 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.80101171182O. Pohonov1.91125113113LSep 30 · 13:05B. Chaikovskyi1.50111189113O. Pohonov2.5078111162WSep 30 · 03:00O. Rodin1.802138121O. Pohonov1.91111111143WSep 30 · 01:30O. Pohonov1.30111189113I. Sukovatyi3.4047111182WSep 29 · 23:30A. Romanenko2.63101111942O. Pohonov1.44124811113WSep 29 · 21:30R. Konkulovskyi2.2011127862O. Pohonov1.617101111113LSep 29 · 20:30B. Chaikovskyi1.5011117113O. Pohonov2.50851191LSep 27 · 01:50O. Pohonov2.38114971B. Chaikovskyi1.5381111113LSep 27 · 00:15O. Pohonov1.6781111962O. Rodin2.10114911113WSep 26 · 23:15A. Romanenko2.508560O. Pohonov1.501111113
A. Romanenko10
WSep 30 · 12:05I. Hrekh1.835111051A. Romanenko1.8311912113WSep 30 · 02:30A. Romanenko2.101111113I. Sukovatyi1.677630WSep 30 · 00:30R. Konkulovskyi2.38491111102A. Romanenko1.53111188123LSep 29 · 23:30A. Romanenko2.63101111942O. Pohonov1.44124811113LSep 29 · 22:30B. Chaikovskyi1.50871111113A. Romanenko2.5011112692WSep 29 · 21:00A. Romanenko1.831161111113O. Rodin1.8391113812LSep 27 · 01:19I. Sukovatyi1.61411117113A. Romanenko2.2011591192LSep 27 · 00:45B. Chaikovskyi1.5011812113A. Romanenko2.506111041LSep 26 · 23:15A. Romanenko2.508560O. Pohonov1.501111113WSep 26 · 21:45A. Romanenko2.2012116113I. Sukovatyi1.611061151
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