TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Kaidakov vs Viktor Slozka 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111141198111311
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:01 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Kaidakov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Kaidakov above · Viktor Slozka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 98 set 5, 13-11 · our read held Volodymyr Kaidakov at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Kaidakov 60–46 Viktor Slozka Viktor Slozka has won 46 of their 106 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:0154.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Slozka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
60-46 in 106
Kaidakov
Correct
gap of 14 in 106, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaidakov 1691 vs Slozka 1725
Slozka
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaidakov 80% vs Slozka 60%
Kaidakov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaidakov 60% vs Slozka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaidakov -1 · Slozka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kaidakov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaidakov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaidakov 1.833 / Slozka 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kaidakov)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13229147
Kaidakov1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Slozka1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaidakov3wins
AwaySlozka7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSlozka leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaidakov40%2 of 5
AwaySlozka80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaidakov5Slozka5n = 10split evenly
S2Kaidakov2Slozka8n = 10Slozka took 8 of 10
S3Kaidakov3Slozka7n = 10Slozka took 7 of 10
S4Kaidakov4Slozka2n = 6Kaidakov took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaidakovSlozkaK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.637.7−2.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaidakovSlozkaBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 520 vs 391 / 85253.3%45.9%277 / 520 vs 391 / 852Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaidakovKaidakov 1.83/Slozka 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kaidakov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kaidakov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 19 · 04:35V. Kaidakov4481114113V. Slozka331131271
LJun 18 · 14:05V. Kaidakov5116118792V. Slozka551481111113
WJun 18 · 02:30V. Kaidakov43111011113V. Slozka27312751
LJun 5 · 05:35V. Kaidakov2461080V. Slozka341112113
WMay 28 · 13:05V. Kaidakov4111811113V. Slozka31911741
LMay 28 · 02:30V. Kaidakov25101050V. Slozka351212113
LMay 22 · 05:35V. Kaidakov186750V. Slozka331111113
LMay 21 · 16:35V. Kaidakov45117611102V. Slozka46411118123
LMay 20 · 21:00V. Kaidakov4215107101V. Slozka48131211123
LMay 1 · 05:35V. Kaidakov2391130V. Slozka351113113
V. Kaidakov10
LOct 2 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.911611123V. Kaidakov1.80148100LOct 2 · 08:05A. Nazrin1.831111133V. Kaidakov1.8358110WOct 2 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.7391211111V. Kaidakov2.00111013133WOct 2 · 05:05M. Loboda1.91271161V. Kaidakov1.8011113113WOct 1 · 18:35A. Nazrin1.8091141152V. Kaidakov1.91118118113WOct 1 · 17:35V. Krokhmal2.104111171V. Kaidakov1.6711135113LOct 1 · 16:05M. Loboda2.001114113V. Kaidakov1.7361280LOct 1 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.25714113113V. Kaidakov1.57111271192WOct 1 · 12:05Y. Vorsuliak1.91311131092V. Kaidakov1.801181112113WOct 1 · 02:30R. Konkulovskyi1.73712351V. Kaidakov2.00111011113
V. Slozka10
WOct 2 · 11:05A. Nazrin1.619990V. Slozka2.201111113LOct 2 · 08:35M. Loboda1.7311119113V. Slozka2.00691161WOct 2 · 06:35V. Krokhmal1.91871171V. Slozka1.8011117113WOct 2 · 04:35I. Hrekh1.61118111052V. Slozka2.20711412113LOct 1 · 10:35I. Hrekh1.731111113V. Slozka2.005260WOct 1 · 09:35V. Slozka2.0081111113O. Pohonov1.73119931LOct 1 · 08:35V. Slozka2.25911118122A. Romanenko1.57119911143LOct 1 · 07:05V. Slozka1.834113101O. Rodin1.8311911123LOct 1 · 05:05V. Slozka2.6381121182I. Sukovatyi1.44118119113WSep 30 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.679970V. Slozka2.101111113
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