TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Ponomarenko vs Viacheslav Kovalenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171210611119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:48 and never touched: 91.0% is still 91.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
91.0%
91.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Ponomarenko above · Viacheslav Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 91.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Ponomarenko 4–2 Viacheslav Kovalenko Viacheslav Kovalenko has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:4891.0%Our read94.2%to break even at 1.062
short by 3.2pp94.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.062 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.06 (88%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 2009 vs Kovalenko 1611
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 399 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Kovalenko 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Kovalenko 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +1 · Kovalenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% · Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (13%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.062 / Kovalenko 8.00
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219319
Ponomarenko1.06
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite87% won 303 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it100% 197 of 198
Up 1–0, closes it95% 253 of 267
Kovalenko8.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 57 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePonomarenko4wins
AwayKovalenko2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%3 of 3
AwayKovalenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko3Kovalenko3n = 6split evenly
S2Ponomarenko3Kovalenko3n = 6split evenly
S3Ponomarenko3Kovalenko3n = 6split evenly
S4Ponomarenko3Kovalenko1n = 4Ponomarenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKovalenkoP − KBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match38.734.7+4.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime804 / 891 vs 185 / 42090.2%44.1%804 / 891 vs 185 / 420Avg sets wonper match2.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.06/Kovalenko 8.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 29 · 23:25S. Ponomarenko351113113V. Kovalenko2451180
LSep 23 · 17:34S. Ponomarenko205690V. Kovalenko331111113
WSep 23 · 15:35S. Ponomarenko3961111113V. Kovalenko28118451
WSep 22 · 23:25S. Ponomarenko5611121111113V. Kovalenko4761413592
LSep 2 · 21:55S. Ponomarenko3981011101V. Kovalenko4311128123
WAug 26 · 17:55S. Ponomarenko43111110113V. Kovalenko33861271
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 30 · 21:55S. Ponomarenko1.045111011113O. Kovalchuk9.0011212942LSep 30 · 04:25S. Ponomarenko1.05121161172O. Mishchenko8.50149113113WSep 30 · 02:25O. Kovalchuk9.007145101S. Ponomarenko1.04111211123LSep 30 · 00:25A. Chepurnyi2.6341111113S. Ponomarenko1.44118871WSep 29 · 23:25S. Ponomarenko1.101113113V. Kovalenko6.5051180WSep 29 · 22:25E. Rubtsov8.0011960S. Ponomarenko1.061311113WSep 26 · 10:00D. Kryshtal8.004850S. Ponomarenko1.061111113WSep 26 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko1.061111113D. Kryshtal8.009890WSep 26 · 08:00S. Bului10.50711441S. Ponomarenko1.0211811113WSep 26 · 07:00V. Komar8.507880S. Ponomarenko1.051111113
V. Kovalenko10
LSep 30 · 22:25V. Kovalenko1.50661161E. Rubtsov2.5011118113LSep 30 · 03:55E. Rubtsov2.63111178113V. Kovalenko1.4499111182WSep 30 · 02:55O. Mishchenko1.836890V. Kovalenko1.831111113WSep 30 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk1.831299111V. Kovalenko1.83101111133LSep 29 · 23:25S. Ponomarenko1.101113113V. Kovalenko6.5051180LSep 29 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi1.401111113V. Kovalenko2.757690WSep 23 · 17:34V. Kovalenko7.001111113S. Ponomarenko1.085690LSep 23 · 16:35V. Kovalenko1.83911871O. Kovalchuk1.8311711113LSep 23 · 15:35S. Ponomarenko1.1061111113V. Kovalenko6.50118451WSep 23 · 14:35E. Rubtsov2.63612581V. Kovalenko1.44111011113
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