TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Bului vs Serhii Ponomarenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711118411411––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:00 and never touched — 90.7% is still 90.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
90.7%
90.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Bului above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 67 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 90.7%
67 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Bului 0–1 Serhii Ponomarenko Serhii Bului has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:00What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.02 (91%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Bului 1698 vs Ponomarenko 2029
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 331 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bului 0% vs Ponomarenko 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bului 20% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bului -6 · Ponomarenko +2
Bului
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (98%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBului 10.50 / Ponomarenko 1.02
Signal prob.9% / 91%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13196299
Bului10.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog11% won 8 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back8% 5 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44
Ponomarenko1.02
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite87% won 300 of 346
Up 2–0, closes it100% 195 of 196
Up 1–0, closes it95% 249 of 262
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBului0wins
AwayPonomarenko1wins
Ponomarenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricBuluiPonomarenkoB − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match16.033.0−17.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuluiPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 215 vs 797 / 88248.4%90.4%104 / 215 vs 797 / 882Avg sets wonper match1.92.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoBului 10.50/Ponomarenko 1.02
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91.1%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 18 · 09:00S. Bului164570S. Ponomarenko331111113
S. Bului10
LSep 26 · 06:30S. Bului3.75117651I. Shyndel1.2571111113LSep 26 · 05:00S. Bului3.505630D. Kryshtal1.281111113LSep 25 · 16:30S. Bului3.75183621R. Horokh1.25161111113LSep 25 · 15:30S. Bului3.759117111I. Shyndel1.2511811133LSep 25 · 14:00S. Bului3.5091040D. Kryshtal1.281112113LSep 25 · 13:00S. Bului3.4012670S. Balabei1.301411113WSep 13 · 10:10O. Torianyk2.3811371282S. Bului1.537111110113WSep 13 · 08:30M. Levytskii2.634131171S. Bului1.44111113113LSep 13 · 07:30S. Bului1.4041111882P. Kolesnik2.75117711113LSep 13 · 06:30O. Tiutiunnyk2.501111113S. Bului1.508990
S. Ponomarenko10
WSep 26 · 07:00V. Komar8.507880S. Ponomarenko1.051111113WSep 26 · 05:30I. Shyndel10.008530S. Ponomarenko1.031111113LSep 23 · 17:34V. Kovalenko7.001111113S. Ponomarenko1.085690LSep 23 · 17:05E. Rubtsov9.001111113S. Ponomarenko1.048870WSep 23 · 15:35S. Ponomarenko1.1061111113V. Kovalenko6.50118451LSep 23 · 14:05S. Ponomarenko1.1111411952P. Plakushchyi6.00711711113WSep 23 · 12:35S. Ponomarenko1.051211113O. Kovalchuk8.5010890LSep 23 · 04:25S. Ponomarenko1.069111071E. Rubtsov8.0011612113LSep 23 · 02:25P. Plakushchyi5.50111110113S. Ponomarenko1.13331261LSep 23 · 00:25A. Chepurnyi3.5011119113S. Ponomarenko1.28661191
Upcoming Matches
S. Bului
S. Ponomarenko
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