TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk vs Serhii Ponomarenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71114125111012––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:15 and never touched: 91.8% is still 91.8%
Graded at full timeSerhii Ponomarenko to win
91.8%
91.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Serhii Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 82 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Serhii Ponomarenko at 91.8%
82 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 0–6 Serhii Ponomarenko Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.04 (90%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-6 in 6
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1551 vs Ponomarenko 2033
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 482 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Ponomarenko 80%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Ponomarenko 70%
Ponomarenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Ponomarenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 92% · Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (80%) is below what odds imply (96%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 9.00 / Ponomarenko 1.04
Signal prob.8% / 92%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.2pp
Setka Cup · #13213663
Kovalchuk9.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 78 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 79
Ponomarenko1.04
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite87% won 305 of 351
Up 2–0, closes it100% 199 of 200
Up 1–0, closes it95% 254 of 267
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKovalchuk0wins
AwayPonomarenko6wins
2 of 6 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 6–0, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchukn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPonomarenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk1Ponomarenko5n = 6Ponomarenko took 5 of 6
S2Kovalchuk2Ponomarenko4n = 6Ponomarenko took 4 of 6
S3Kovalchuk2Ponomarenko4n = 6Ponomarenko took 4 of 6
S4Kovalchuk0Ponomarenko3n = 3Ponomarenko took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away350%
These 6 meetings
MetricKovalchukPonomarenkoK − PBasisWins06−6in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match33.339.2−5.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 769 vs 802 / 88842.4%90.3%326 / 769 vs 802 / 888Avg sets wonper match1.82.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoKovalchuk 9.00/Ponomarenko 1.04
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91.8%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 23 · 12:35O. Kovalchuk2710890S. Ponomarenko341211113
LSep 22 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk4691111692S. Ponomarenko44116511113
LSep 3 · 16:25O. Kovalchuk2671270S. Ponomarenko361114113
LSep 3 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk4311611692S. Ponomarenko47811611113
LAug 26 · 14:55O. Kovalchuk36711991S. Ponomarenko4111811113
LAug 26 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk228590S. Ponomarenko331111113
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 30 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk1.831299111V. Kovalenko1.83101111133WSep 29 · 23:55O. Kovalchuk1.73912212113E. Rubtsov2.001110111062LSep 29 · 21:55O. Kovalchuk2.20781141O. Mishchenko1.6111116113LSep 23 · 18:03O. Kovalchuk1.73117111182E. Rubtsov2.00911137113WSep 23 · 16:35V. Kovalenko1.83911871O. Kovalchuk1.8311711113WSep 23 · 15:05P. Plakushchyi1.5792110O. Kovalchuk2.251111133WSep 23 · 13:35E. Rubtsov1.918840O. Kovalchuk1.801111113LSep 23 · 12:35S. Ponomarenko1.051211113O. Kovalchuk8.5010890LSep 23 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8061181182V. Kovalenko1.91117119113LSep 23 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi1.36611111123O. Kovalchuk3.00111196102
S. Ponomarenko10
LSep 30 · 00:25A. Chepurnyi2.6341111113S. Ponomarenko1.44118871WSep 29 · 23:25S. Ponomarenko1.101113113V. Kovalenko6.5051180WSep 29 · 22:25E. Rubtsov8.0011960S. Ponomarenko1.061311113WSep 26 · 10:00D. Kryshtal8.004850S. Ponomarenko1.061111113WSep 26 · 09:00S. Ponomarenko1.061111113D. Kryshtal8.009890WSep 26 · 08:00S. Bului10.50711441S. Ponomarenko1.0211811113WSep 26 · 07:00V. Komar8.507880S. Ponomarenko1.051111113WSep 26 · 05:30I. Shyndel10.008530S. Ponomarenko1.031111113LSep 23 · 17:34V. Kovalenko7.001111113S. Ponomarenko1.085690WSep 23 · 12:35S. Ponomarenko1.051211113O. Kovalchuk8.5010890
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