TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Eduard Rubtsov vs Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Eduard Rubtsov
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811411––––
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr V Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEduard Rubtsov above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 53 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Oleksandr V Kovalchuk at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Rubtsov 107–112 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Eduard Rubtsov has won 107 of their 219 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:22What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
107-112 in 219
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 5 in 219, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rubtsov 1416 vs Kovalchuk 1534
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rubtsov 20% vs Kovalchuk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rubtsov 20% vs Kovalchuk 50%
Kovalchuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rubtsov +1 · Kovalchuk -3
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRubtsov 1.91 / Kovalchuk 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13180308
Rubtsov1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 97 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back13% 21 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 118
Kovalchuk1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 48 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it71% 32 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRubtsov5wins
AwayKovalchuk5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRubtsov100%4 of 4
AwayKovalchuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rubtsov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Rubtsov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Rubtsov7Kovalchuk3n = 10Rubtsov took 7 of 10
S4Rubtsov3Kovalchuk5n = 8Kovalchuk took 5 of 8
S5Rubtsov3Kovalchuk2n = 5Rubtsov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRubtsovKovalchukR − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.439.7−1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRubtsovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime291 / 757 vs 327 / 77738.4%42.1%291 / 757 vs 327 / 777Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukRubtsov 1.91/Kovalchuk 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 24:55E. Rubtsov28431291O. Kovalchuk43111110113
LSep 17 · 24:55E. Rubtsov3893111142O. Kovalchuk44111156113
LSep 16 · 03:55E. Rubtsov399611131O. Kovalchuk4511118153
LSep 9 · 22:25E. Rubtsov3945111182O. Kovalchuk47111177113
LSep 9 · 02:55E. Rubtsov177460O. Kovalchuk331111113
WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov4281211113O. Kovalchuk301110541
WSep 2 · 21:25E. Rubtsov46111158113O. Kovalchuk4497111162
WAug 26 · 18:55E. Rubtsov48111178113O. Kovalchuk3882111162
WAug 25 · 21:25E. Rubtsov351311113O. Kovalchuk2511680
WAug 20 · 17:25E. Rubtsov52138119113O. Kovalchuk48111191162
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 23 · 14:35E. Rubtsov2.63612581V. Kovalenko1.44111011113WSep 23 · 04:25S. Ponomarenko1.069111071E. Rubtsov8.0011612113LSep 23 · 02:55E. Rubtsov2.509490V. Kovalenko1.501111113LSep 23 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.80111110113E. Rubtsov1.91431291LSep 22 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi1.361110611133E. Rubtsov3.00512116112LSep 22 · 21:55P. Plakushchyi1.441411113E. Rubtsov2.6312590LSep 17 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.361111113E. Rubtsov3.005870WSep 17 · 02:55E. Rubtsov2.201112811113V. Panasenko1.6171411432LSep 17 · 02:31E. Rubtsov1.911110581P. Plakushchyi1.8071211113LSep 17 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.83111156113E. Rubtsov1.8393111142
O. Kovalchuk10
WSep 23 · 15:05P. Plakushchyi1.5792110O. Kovalchuk2.251111133LSep 23 · 12:35S. Ponomarenko1.051211113O. Kovalchuk8.5010890LSep 23 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8061181182V. Kovalenko1.91117119113LSep 23 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi1.36611111123O. Kovalchuk3.00111196102WSep 23 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.80111110113E. Rubtsov1.91431291LSep 22 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi1.531411113O. Kovalchuk2.3812870LSep 22 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk7.0091111692S. Ponomarenko1.08116511113WSep 17 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.731110114113V. Panasenko2.0041251132WSep 17 · 02:58O. Mishchenko1.67510100O. Kovalchuk2.101112123WSep 17 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk1.83111156113E. Rubtsov1.8393111142
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