TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk vs Viacheslav Kovalenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12109119111113––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:17 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Viacheslav Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 86 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Viacheslav Kovalenko at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 40–30 Viacheslav Kovalenko Viacheslav Kovalenko has won 30 of their 70 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:17What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
40-30 in 70
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 10 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1561 vs Kovalenko 1622
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Kovalenko 20%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 50% vs Kovalenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Kovalenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.83 / Kovalenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13213617
Kovalchuk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kovalenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk4wins
AwayKovalenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovalenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%3 of 3
AwayKovalenko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk3Kovalenko7n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk6Kovalenko2n = 8Kovalchuk took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukKovalenkoKovalchuk − KovalenkoBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.337.7−0.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 768 vs 183 / 41642.5%44%326 / 768 vs 183 / 416Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalchuk 1.83/Kovalenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 16:35O. Kovalchuk4011711113V. Kovalenko35911871
LSep 23 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk4461181182V. Kovalenko49117119113
WSep 9 · 23:55O. Kovalchuk3911611113V. Kovalenko28711461
LSep 3 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk399118111V. Kovalenko4111611133
LAug 26 · 16:55O. Kovalchuk2999110V. Kovalenko351111133
LAug 20 · 13:25O. Kovalchuk205870V. Kovalenko331111113
WAug 13 · 16:25O. Kovalchuk4312128113V. Kovalenko3810101171
LAug 12 · 21:55O. Kovalchuk29871131V. Kovalenko3811115113
WAug 12 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk4491311113V. Kovalenko361111861
LAug 6 · 16:25O. Kovalchuk4691171182V. Kovalenko44117114113
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 30 · 02:25O. Kovalchuk9.007145101S. Ponomarenko1.04111211123WSep 29 · 23:55O. Kovalchuk1.73912212113E. Rubtsov2.001110111062LSep 29 · 21:55O. Kovalchuk2.20781141O. Mishchenko1.6111116113LSep 23 · 18:03O. Kovalchuk1.73117111182E. Rubtsov2.00911137113WSep 23 · 16:35V. Kovalenko1.83911871O. Kovalchuk1.8311711113WSep 23 · 15:05P. Plakushchyi1.5792110O. Kovalchuk2.251111133WSep 23 · 13:35E. Rubtsov1.918840O. Kovalchuk1.801111113LSep 23 · 12:35S. Ponomarenko1.051211113O. Kovalchuk8.5010890LSep 23 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8061181182V. Kovalenko1.91117119113LSep 23 · 01:55A. Chepurnyi1.36611111123O. Kovalchuk3.00111196102
V. Kovalenko10
LSep 29 · 23:25S. Ponomarenko1.101113113V. Kovalenko6.5051180LSep 29 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi1.401111113V. Kovalenko2.757690WSep 23 · 17:34V. Kovalenko7.001111113S. Ponomarenko1.085690LSep 23 · 16:35V. Kovalenko1.83911871O. Kovalchuk1.8311711113LSep 23 · 15:35S. Ponomarenko1.1061111113V. Kovalenko6.50118451WSep 23 · 14:35E. Rubtsov2.63612581V. Kovalenko1.44111011113WSep 23 · 13:05P. Plakushchyi1.677990V. Kovalenko2.101111113WSep 23 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8061181182V. Kovalenko1.91117119113WSep 23 · 02:55E. Rubtsov2.509490V. Kovalenko1.501111113LSep 23 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi1.7311911113V. Kovalenko2.00811961
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