TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Mishchenko vs Viacheslav Kovalenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811911––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:43 and never touched: 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Kovalenko to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Viacheslav Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Viacheslav Kovalenko at 54.4%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 34–30 Viacheslav Kovalenko Viacheslav Kovalenko has won 30 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:43What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-30 in 64
Mishchenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1598 vs Kovalenko 1633
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 60% vs Kovalenko 40%
Mishchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 30% vs Kovalenko 60%
Kovalenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko +1 · Kovalenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 1.83 / Kovalenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13213680
Mishchenko1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Kovalenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko6wins
AwayKovalenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMishchenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayKovalenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko7Kovalenko3n = 10Mishchenko took 7 of 10
S2Mishchenko5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Mishchenko4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Mishchenko3Kovalenko5n = 8Kovalenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoKovalenkoM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.238.1−2.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime487 / 1046 vs 184 / 41746.6%44.1%487 / 1046 vs 184 / 417Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoMishchenko 1.83/Kovalenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.4%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 21:55O. Mishchenko27311761V. Kovalenko3911611113
WSep 3 · 02:25O. Mishchenko43117113113V. Kovalenko4471171182
WAug 26 · 14:25O. Mishchenko4111145113V. Kovalenko409121181
LAug 20 · 16:25O. Mishchenko30613741V. Kovalenko44111111113
WAug 20 · 04:25O. Mishchenko4411913113V. Kovalenko388111181
WAug 13 · 14:55O. Mishchenko3711114113V. Kovalenko32971151
LAug 13 · 04:25O. Mishchenko27114751V. Kovalenko4181111113
LAug 12 · 00:55O. Mishchenko186930V. Kovalenko331111113
WAug 6 · 14:55O. Mishchenko491111115113V. Kovalenko4181331162
WAug 6 · 00:55O. Mishchenko361113123V. Kovalenko29811100
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 30 · 00:55E. Rubtsov3.00811561O. Mishchenko1.3611811113LSep 29 · 22:55A. Chepurnyi1.53811711113O. Mishchenko2.3811811992WSep 29 · 21:55O. Kovalchuk2.20781141O. Mishchenko1.6111116113LSep 27 · 03:25O. Mishchenko3.75111171042Y. Kryvorotko1.25481112113WSep 27 · 01:55O. Mishchenko2.2591111113O. Dukhovenko1.57117881LSep 27 · 00:25O. Mishchenko2.5061170A. Chepurnyi1.501113113LSep 26 · 22:55O. Mishchenko2.75111031172O. Gavryshko1.40812113113LSep 26 · 21:25O. Mishchenko2.10118881I. Demchenko1.6781111113LSep 25 · 19:55Y. Kryvorotko1.22581114113O. Mishchenko4.00111191252LSep 25 · 18:55I. Demchenko1.577111210113O. Mishchenko2.25114101222
V. Kovalenko10
WSep 30 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk1.831299111V. Kovalenko1.83101111133LSep 29 · 23:25S. Ponomarenko1.101113113V. Kovalenko6.5051180LSep 29 · 21:25A. Chepurnyi1.401111113V. Kovalenko2.757690WSep 23 · 17:34V. Kovalenko7.001111113S. Ponomarenko1.085690LSep 23 · 16:35V. Kovalenko1.83911871O. Kovalchuk1.8311711113LSep 23 · 15:35S. Ponomarenko1.1061111113V. Kovalenko6.50118451WSep 23 · 14:35E. Rubtsov2.63612581V. Kovalenko1.44111011113WSep 23 · 13:05P. Plakushchyi1.677990V. Kovalenko2.101111113WSep 23 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk1.8061181182V. Kovalenko1.91117119113WSep 23 · 02:55E. Rubtsov2.509490V. Kovalenko1.501111113
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