TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viacheslav Kovalenko vs Vitalii Krokhmal 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911113114––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:19 and never touched: 63.0% is still 63.0%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Kovalenko to win
63.0%
63.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Kovalenko above · Vitalii Krokhmal below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 68 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Viacheslav Kovalenko at 63.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Kovalenko 1–0 Vitalii Krokhmal Vitalii Krokhmal has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:1963.0%Our read68.0%to break even at 1.47
short by 5.0pp68.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.47 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1604 vs Krokhmal 1645
Krokhmal
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 60% vs Krokhmal 20%
Kovalenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 40% vs Krokhmal 20%
Kovalenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko -1 · Krokhmal -3
Krokhmal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kovalenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krokhmal form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.47 / Krokhmal 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Kovalenko)-5.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256014
Kovalenko1.47
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 56 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50
Krokhmal2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 152 days ago (May 08) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 101 of 230
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKovalenko1wins
AwayKrokhmal0wins
Kovalenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKovalenkoKrokhmalKovalenko − KrokhmalBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match42.036.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoKrokhmalBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 429 vs 198 / 42744.1%46.4%189 / 429 vs 198 / 427Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.47/Krokhmal 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 6 · 22:25V. Kovalenko4281111123V. Krokhmal361196101
V. Kovalenko10
LOct 7 · 19:25V. Kovalenko1.4011971472E. Rubtsov2.755111112113WOct 7 · 17:55V. Kovalenko2.7514511113A. Chepurnyi1.401211991WOct 7 · 16:25V. Kovalenko2.001111113O. Kovalchuk1.734770WOct 7 · 14:55V. Kovalenko1.8311912113O. Mishchenko1.837111031LOct 7 · 04:25V. Kovalenko1.7310890O. Mishchenko2.001211113WOct 7 · 02:25V. Panasenko2.2521161152V. Kovalenko1.57117115113LOct 7 · 00:25O. Kovalchuk1.83101211113V. Kovalenko1.831210851WOct 6 · 23:25V. Kovalenko1.4412101011113E. Rubtsov2.63101212382WOct 6 · 22:25V. Krokhmal2.101196101V. Kovalenko1.6781111123WOct 1 · 03:55V. Kovalenko1.8091111113O. Mishchenko1.91116571
V. Krokhmal10
WOct 7 · 19:55A. Chepurnyi1.4011116872V. Krokhmal2.75991111113WOct 7 · 18:55O. Mishchenko1.6771111462V. Krokhmal2.10116711113LOct 7 · 17:25E. Rubtsov1.5311511113V. Krokhmal2.38811671WOct 7 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk2.0051111642V. Krokhmal1.73116911113LOct 7 · 03:55V. Krokhmal1.83126711E. Rubtsov1.83101111113WOct 7 · 01:55O. Kovalchuk1.731311991V. Krokhmal2.0015911113LOct 7 · 00:55V. Krokhmal2.00361151O. Mishchenko1.7311117113WOct 6 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.836115111V. Krokhmal1.8311911133LOct 6 · 22:25V. Krokhmal2.101196101V. Kovalenko1.6781111123WOct 2 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.911611123V. Kaidakov1.80148100
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