TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Slavik vs Radek Benes 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131141012116117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:05 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Slavik above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 96 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Radek Benes at 59.3%
96 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Slavik 4–8 Radek Benes Lukas Slavik has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0559.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Benes
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slavik 1626 vs Benes 1640
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slavik 40% vs Benes 60%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slavik 40% vs Benes 60%
Benes
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Slavik -1 · Benes +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlavik 2.20 / Benes 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Benes)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13245774
Slavik2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 39 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back32% 15 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Benes1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 183 of 320
Up 2–0, closes it94% 78 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it77% 123 of 160
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlavik3wins
AwayBenes7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlavik25%1 of 4
AwayBenes66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slavik4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S2Slavik6Benes4n = 10Slavik took 6 of 10
S3Slavik4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Slavik2Benes6n = 8Benes took 6 of 8
S5Slavik1Benes2n = 3Benes took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlavikBenesS − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.038.0−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlavikBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 251 vs 528 / 101152.2%52.2%131 / 251 vs 528 / 1011Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesSlavik 2.20/Benes 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Slavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 06:15L. Slavik5411111011113R. Benes4213412672
LSep 17 · 09:15L. Slavik31511781R. Benes4111811113
LSep 17 · 05:45L. Slavik30116761R. Benes4181111113
LJul 16 · 05:40L. Slavik327111041R. Benes3911512113
LJul 13 · 05:45L. Slavik31119291R. Benes4181111113
LJul 11 · 12:45L. Slavik235990R. Benes331111113
WJul 11 · 10:45L. Slavik3961111113R. Benes30116671
WJul 9 · 08:45L. Slavik341112113R. Benes2241080
LJul 9 · 07:45L. Slavik39101111522R. Benes43126311113
LJul 6 · 15:45L. Slavik3711911242R. Benes48711811113
L. Slavik10
LOct 5 · 07:45B. Mrowetz1.501111113L. Slavik2.506880WOct 5 · 07:15T. Krenek1.91411951L. Slavik1.8011411113LOct 2 · 20:53K. Kleprlik2.006151111113L. Slavik1.7311176592WOct 2 · 19:45L. Slavik1.9111116113D. Stusek1.80991191LOct 2 · 18:45L. Slavik1.6741011101K. Kleprlik2.1011129123LOct 2 · 17:45L. Slavik1.5311811111D. Vitasek2.3813117133WSep 30 · 12:44L. Kantor2.207990L. Slavik1.611111113LSep 30 · 11:45L. Slavik1.914880J. Skvrna1.801111113LSep 30 · 10:45L. Slavik1.61571181T. Krenek2.2011117113LSep 30 · 09:45L. Slavik1.6161141192L. Kantor2.20119117113
R. Benes10
WOct 5 · 06:45B. Mrowetz1.61391481R. Benes2.20111112113WOct 4 · 17:15R. Benes2.101113410153D. Velky Jr1.678111112132LOct 4 · 15:40L. Dzida2.2571111113R. Benes1.57114771WOct 4 · 15:10R. Solle2.385136121R. Benes1.53111111143WOct 4 · 14:10R. Benes2.2091111113D. Velky Jr1.61118361LOct 1 · 08:38R. Benes1.441061251E. Precek2.63121110113WOct 1 · 08:10R. Benes1.6111114133E. Precek2.209911111LOct 1 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.6711911113R. Benes2.10611771WOct 1 · 06:10J. Krupnik1.8399111182R. Benes1.83111197113WSep 30 · 13:08M. Moravec1.839112111R. Benes1.8311911133
Upcoming Matches
L. Slavik
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R. Benes
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