TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anton Yakovenko vs Valentyn Chumak 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119411211811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched: 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeAnton Yakovenko to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Yakovenko above · Valentyn Chumak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 67 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Anton Yakovenko at 66.1%
67 points played in total.
H2H Anton Yakovenko 35–13 Valentyn Chumak Valentyn Chumak has won 13 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:5266.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Yakovenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
35-13 in 48
Yakovenko
Wrong
gap of 22 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yakovenko 1454 vs Chumak 1462
Chumak
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yakovenko 40% vs Chumak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yakovenko 60% vs Chumak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Yakovenko -2 · Chumak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Yakovenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yakovenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYakovenko 1.444 / Chumak 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Yakovenko)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245624
Yakovenko1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 28 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Chumak2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 56 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYakovenko8wins
AwayChumak2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderYakovenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYakovenko100%6 of 6
AwayChumak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yakovenko6Chumak4n = 10Yakovenko took 6 of 10
S2Yakovenko4Chumak6n = 10Chumak took 6 of 10
S3Yakovenko7Chumak3n = 10Yakovenko took 7 of 10
S4Yakovenko9Chumak1n = 10Yakovenko took 9 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricYakovenkoChumakY − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.837.9+2.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYakovenkoChumakBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 453 vs 292 / 55549%52.6%222 / 453 vs 292 / 555Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
YakovenkoYakovenko 1.44/Chumak 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Yakovenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chumak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 13:35A. Yakovenko4111712113V. Chumak389111081
WJul 22 · 15:55A. Yakovenko4011612113V. Chumak369111061
WJul 20 · 19:25A. Yakovenko4291111113V. Chumak33115981
LJul 10 · 17:55A. Yakovenko44107111152V. Chumak52121199113
WJun 30 · 13:35A. Yakovenko3811115113V. Chumak31761171
WJun 25 · 19:25A. Yakovenko4111811113V. Chumak37911981
WJun 11 · 13:55A. Yakovenko44611411123V. Chumak47116119102
WMay 28 · 18:25A. Yakovenko3811115113V. Chumak34971171
LMar 3 · 14:35A. Yakovenko4181111111V. Chumak4411137133
WFeb 23 · 20:25A. Yakovenko3911611113V. Chumak27611551
A. Yakovenko10
LOct 5 · 17:25A. Yakovenko1.5358130V. Kaganovych2.381111153LOct 5 · 13:55A. Yakovenko1.8371180I. Yelfimov1.831113113LSep 30 · 19:05A. Yakovenko1.737480V. Slabyshev2.001111113WSep 30 · 17:05V. Sharpai1.8061111972A. Yakovenko1.91119611113WSep 30 · 16:05A. Yakovenko1.611111113D. Boltenkov2.207980LSep 30 · 15:05I. Yelfimov2.20111486113A. Yakovenko1.61312111132WSep 30 · 13:35A. Yakovenko1.4411712113V. Chumak2.639111081WSep 22 · 19:55A. Yakovenko2.20111197113A. Lifanov1.6186111152WSep 22 · 17:55V. Kaganovych2.1011861262A. Yakovenko1.676111110113LSep 22 · 16:55A. Yakovenko1.4411981162I. Yelfimov2.63911119113
V. Chumak10
LOct 5 · 16:55V. Chumak1.57611116132I. Yelfimov2.25114611153LOct 5 · 14:25V. Chumak1.67117341V. Hainiuk2.1081111113LOct 1 · 20:25V. Chumak1.738101161D. Boltenkov2.0011125113WOct 1 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.257980V. Chumak1.571111113LOct 1 · 16:25V. Sydorenko2.101111123V. Chumak1.6768100WOct 1 · 15:25V. Chumak1.6711127113V. Slabyshev2.106101171WOct 1 · 14:25V. Husiev2.7511931162V. Chumak1.40911119113WSep 30 · 19:35V. Chumak1.80961211113D. Boltenkov1.91111110952WSep 30 · 17:35I. Yelfimov2.2511513562V. Chumak1.572111111113LSep 30 · 13:35A. Yakovenko1.4411712113V. Chumak2.639111081
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