TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valentyn Chumak vs Volodymyr Hainiuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118711311411––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:37 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Valentyn Chumak @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Volodymyr Hainiuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 66 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Valentyn Chumak at 57.4%
66 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 46–56 Volodymyr Hainiuk Valentyn Chumak has won 46 of their 102 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:3757.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chumak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
46-56 in 102
Hainiuk
Correct
gap of 10 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1477 vs Hainiuk 1405
Chumak
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 60% vs Hainiuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 70% vs Hainiuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak -1 · Hainiuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Chumak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hainiuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 1.666 / Hainiuk 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Chumak)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245514
Chumak1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 64 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it71% 42 of 59
Hainiuk2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChumak6wins
AwayHainiuk4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChumak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChumak66.7%4 of 6
AwayHainiuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chumak6Hainiuk4n = 10Chumak took 6 of 10
S2Chumak8Hainiuk2n = 10Chumak took 8 of 10
S3Chumak7Hainiuk3n = 10Chumak took 7 of 10
S4Chumak2Hainiuk4n = 6Hainiuk took 4 of 6
S5Chumak1Hainiuk3n = 4Hainiuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChumakHainiukC − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.234.3+4.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakHainiukBasisWin rate · lifetime292 / 554 vs 363 / 67352.7%53.9%292 / 554 vs 363 / 673Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakChumak 1.67/Hainiuk 2.10
Miss
What we said
57.4%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Valentyn Chumak @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Hainiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 13:35V. Chumak331111113V. Hainiuk196670
LAug 31 · 13:35V. Chumak4471211772V. Hainiuk481110511113
LAug 25 · 13:35V. Chumak45117111062V. Hainiuk43211712113
WAug 24 · 13:35V. Chumak3631111113V. Hainiuk30117571
WAug 18 · 13:35V. Chumak361411113V. Hainiuk2512760
WAug 17 · 13:35V. Chumak47111194123V. Hainiuk40351111102
WAug 10 · 16:55V. Chumak331111113V. Hainiuk216960
LAug 3 · 17:35V. Chumak47111141382V. Hainiuk52781115113
LJul 27 · 14:25V. Chumak29712100V. Hainiuk371114123
WJul 9 · 13:35V. Chumak4291111113V. Hainiuk28119531
V. Chumak10
WOct 5 · 15:55A. Yakovenko1.44114281V. Chumak2.6391111113LOct 1 · 20:25V. Chumak1.738101161D. Boltenkov2.0011125113WOct 1 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.257980V. Chumak1.571111113LOct 1 · 16:25V. Sydorenko2.101111123V. Chumak1.6768100WOct 1 · 15:25V. Chumak1.6711127113V. Slabyshev2.106101171WOct 1 · 14:25V. Husiev2.7511931162V. Chumak1.40911119113WSep 30 · 19:35V. Chumak1.80961211113D. Boltenkov1.91111110952WSep 30 · 17:35I. Yelfimov2.2511513562V. Chumak1.572111111113WSep 30 · 15:35V. Sharpai1.67811361V. Chumak2.1011911113WSep 30 · 14:35V. Chumak1.731112113V. Slabyshev2.0051070
V. Hainiuk10
LOct 5 · 15:25V. Hainiuk2.38116961V. Kaganovych1.5361111113LSep 29 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.2099111592I. Yelfimov1.611111613113LSep 29 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.501011117113V. Hainiuk2.5012751172WSep 29 · 15:35A. Lifanov1.3671111942V. Hainiuk3.00117211113WSep 29 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.501111133V. Sydorenko2.5058110WSep 29 · 13:35V. Sharpai1.5311101011202V. Hainiuk2.38312127223WSep 28 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.3811119113V. Kaganovych1.53581131WSep 28 · 17:35O. Korobov1.4481090V. Hainiuk2.631112113LSep 28 · 15:35V. Sharpai1.53126115113V. Hainiuk2.38101191182WSep 28 · 14:35V. Hainiuk2.00511117143F. Chashchin1.73119811122
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