TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valentyn Chumak vs Vadym Slabyshev 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161210711117––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Valentyn Chumak @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Vadym Slabyshev below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Valentyn Chumak at 55.8%
75 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 2–0 Vadym Slabyshev Vadym Slabyshev has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:5755.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chumak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1500 vs Slabyshev 1465
Chumak
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 100% vs Slabyshev 60%
Chumak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 80% vs Slabyshev 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak +5 · Slabyshev +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Chumak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slabyshev form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 1.666 / Slabyshev 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Chumak)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223537
Chumak1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 64 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it71% 41 of 58
Slabyshev2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 5 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeChumak2wins
AwaySlabyshev0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderChumak leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricChumakSlabyshevC − SBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match42.030.0+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakSlabyshevBasisWin rate · lifetime290 / 550 vs 13 / 2552.7%52%290 / 550 vs 13 / 25Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakChumak 1.67/Slabyshev 2.10
Hit
What we said
55.8%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Valentyn Chumak @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
3–1
Chumak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 30 · 14:35V. Chumak341112113V. Slabyshev2251070
WSep 23 · 15:55V. Chumak50111189113V. Slabyshev3884111142
V. Chumak10
WOct 1 · 14:25V. Husiev2.7511931162V. Chumak1.40911119113WSep 30 · 19:35V. Chumak1.80961211113D. Boltenkov1.91111110952WSep 30 · 17:35I. Yelfimov2.2511513562V. Chumak1.572111111113WSep 30 · 15:35V. Sharpai1.67811361V. Chumak2.1011911113WSep 30 · 14:35V. Chumak1.731112113V. Slabyshev2.0051070LSep 30 · 13:35A. Yakovenko1.4411712113V. Chumak2.639111081WSep 25 · 19:05V. Chumak1.28111011123A. Azarov3.509126101WSep 25 · 17:05D. Boltenkov1.8313117582V. Chumak1.831151111113LSep 25 · 16:05V. Chumak1.911181341V. Kaganovych1.809111583WSep 25 · 15:05V. Sydorenko2.20311111182V. Chumak1.61111393113
V. Slabyshev10
WOct 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko2.50813811102V. Slabyshev1.501111119123WSep 30 · 19:05A. Yakovenko1.737480V. Slabyshev2.001111113WSep 30 · 18:05D. Boltenkov2.75771751V. Slabyshev1.40111115113LSep 30 · 16:35I. Yelfimov1.5711411113V. Slabyshev2.25611741LSep 30 · 14:35V. Chumak1.731112113V. Slabyshev2.0051070WSep 30 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.57117751V. Slabyshev2.2541111113WSep 24 · 19:35D. Boltenkov2.2044100V. Slabyshev1.611111123WSep 24 · 18:05V. Slabyshev1.6711117113V. Sydorenko2.10691181LSep 24 · 16:05F. Chashchin1.9171111113V. Slabyshev1.80119741WSep 24 · 14:05A. Azarov2.2011440V. Slabyshev1.611311113
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