TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Boltenkov vs Valentyn Chumak 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311115711511811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Boltenkov above · Valentyn Chumak below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Valentyn Chumak at 54.3%
93 points played in total.
H2H Denys Boltenkov 3–3 Valentyn Chumak Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:08What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chumak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boltenkov 1372 vs Chumak 1439
Chumak
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boltenkov 60% vs Chumak 40%
Boltenkov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boltenkov 70% vs Chumak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Boltenkov +3 · Chumak -1
Boltenkov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chumak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chumak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoltenkov 1.83 / Chumak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chumak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13191415
Boltenkov1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Chumak1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBoltenkov3wins
AwayChumak3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoltenkov75%3 of 4
AwayChumakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boltenkov4Chumak2n = 6Boltenkov took 4 of 6
S2Boltenkov3Chumak3n = 6split evenly
S3Boltenkov1Chumak5n = 6Chumak took 5 of 6
S4Boltenkov4Chumak2n = 6Boltenkov took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricBoltenkovChumakB − CBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match39.538.5+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoltenkovChumakBasisWin rate · lifetime26 / 48 vs 288 / 55154.2%52.3%26 / 48 vs 288 / 551Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakBoltenkov 1.83/Chumak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chumak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 18 · 13:35D. Boltenkov4411691172V. Chumak45311119113
LSep 17 · 14:35D. Boltenkov341011941V. Chumak4212811113
WSep 10 · 14:25D. Boltenkov3911125113V. Chumak345101181
WSep 3 · 16:05D. Boltenkov4211911113V. Chumak29811641
WSep 2 · 19:55D. Boltenkov46116711113V. Chumak3851111652
LAug 21 · 19:35D. Boltenkov323111171V. Chumak4311813113
D. Boltenkov10
WSep 25 · 15:35D. Boltenkov1.831112113V. Husiev1.8391090WSep 25 · 14:05D. Boltenkov2.5091112113V. Kaganovych1.501191051WSep 25 · 12:35D. Boltenkov1.301111123A. Azarov3.4068100LSep 24 · 19:35D. Boltenkov2.2044100V. Slabyshev1.611111123LSep 24 · 17:35V. Leonov2.25711811113D. Boltenkov1.5711611982WSep 24 · 15:35A. Azarov2.632630D. Boltenkov1.441111113WSep 24 · 14:35D. Boltenkov1.5311116113V. Sydorenko2.38991151WSep 24 · 13:35F. Chashchin1.91116841D. Boltenkov1.8081111113LSep 18 · 19:05D. Boltenkov1.301661191A. Azarov3.4018116113WSep 18 · 17:05R. Serhyenko3.009860D. Boltenkov1.361111113
V. Chumak10
LSep 25 · 16:05V. Chumak1.911181341V. Kaganovych1.809111583WSep 25 · 15:05V. Sydorenko2.20311111182V. Chumak1.61111393113WSep 25 · 13:35V. Chumak1.40118911113V. Husiev2.7571111992LSep 23 · 19:55V. Chumak1.614111111122V. Sydorenko2.20111379143LSep 23 · 17:55O. Korobov1.361111910113V. Chumak3.0035111272WSep 23 · 16:55V. Chumak1.6711117113I. Yelfimov2.10691131WSep 23 · 15:55V. Slabyshev2.2084111142V. Chumak1.61111189113WSep 23 · 14:25V. Chumak1.6111118113Y. Bielokon2.20671171LSep 18 · 19:35V. Chumak1.914111011102I. Yelfimov1.80117127123WSep 18 · 17:35Y. Bielokon2.2087111152V. Chumak1.6111118373
Upcoming Matches
D. Boltenkov
Nothing scheduled
V. Chumak
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