TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valentyn Chumak vs Ivan Yelfimov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111141166111315
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:42 and never touched: 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeValentyn Chumak to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValentyn Chumak above · Ivan Yelfimov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 94 set 5, 13-15 · our read held Valentyn Chumak at 56.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Chumak 2–1 Ivan Yelfimov Ivan Yelfimov has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:4256.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 7.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chumak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chumak 1474 vs Yelfimov 1568
Yelfimov
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chumak 40% vs Yelfimov 80%
Yelfimov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chumak 70% vs Yelfimov 90%
Yelfimov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chumak +1 · Yelfimov +3
Yelfimov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Chumak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yelfimov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChumak 1.571 / Yelfimov 2.25
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Chumak)-7.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245625
Chumak1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 64 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it71% 42 of 59
Yelfimov2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog46% won 6 of 13
Down 0–1, comes back29% 2 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChumak2wins
AwayYelfimov1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderChumak leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chumak1Yelfimov2n = 3Yelfimov took 2 of 3
S2Chumak3Yelfimov0n = 3Chumak took 3 of 3
S3Chumak0Yelfimov3n = 3Yelfimov took 3 of 3
S4Chumak3Yelfimov0n = 3Chumak took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricChumakYelfimovC − YBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.039.3+4.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChumakYelfimovBasisWin rate · lifetime293 / 556 vs 22 / 3252.7%68.8%293 / 556 vs 22 / 32Avg sets wonper match2.12.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChumakChumak 1.57/Yelfimov 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Chumak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Yelfimov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 30 · 17:35V. Chumak462111111113I. Yelfimov4011513562
WSep 23 · 16:55V. Chumak4011117113I. Yelfimov29691131
LSep 18 · 19:35V. Chumak464111011102I. Yelfimov49117127123
V. Chumak10
LOct 5 · 17:55O. Korobov1.3611118113V. Chumak3.00561181WOct 5 · 15:55A. Yakovenko1.44114281V. Chumak2.6391111113LOct 5 · 14:25V. Chumak1.67117341V. Hainiuk2.1081111113LOct 1 · 20:25V. Chumak1.738101161D. Boltenkov2.0011125113WOct 1 · 18:25Y. Bielokon2.257980V. Chumak1.571111113LOct 1 · 16:25V. Sydorenko2.101111123V. Chumak1.6768100WOct 1 · 15:25V. Chumak1.6711127113V. Slabyshev2.106101171WOct 1 · 14:25V. Husiev2.7511931162V. Chumak1.40911119113WSep 30 · 19:35V. Chumak1.80961211113D. Boltenkov1.91111110952WSep 30 · 17:35I. Yelfimov2.2511513562V. Chumak1.572111111113
I. Yelfimov10
WOct 5 · 14:55O. Korobov1.4061411862I. Yelfimov2.751112911113WOct 5 · 13:55A. Yakovenko1.8371180I. Yelfimov1.831113113WSep 30 · 18:35V. Sharpai2.505780I. Yelfimov1.501111113LSep 30 · 17:35I. Yelfimov2.2511513562V. Chumak1.572111111113WSep 30 · 16:35I. Yelfimov1.5711411113V. Slabyshev2.25611741WSep 30 · 15:05I. Yelfimov2.20111486113A. Yakovenko1.61312111132WSep 30 · 13:05I. Yelfimov1.4411511113D. Boltenkov2.63911891WSep 29 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.2099111592I. Yelfimov1.611111613113WSep 29 · 18:05I. Yelfimov1.501112113V. Sydorenko2.5091060WSep 29 · 16:05V. Sharpai2.007970I. Yelfimov1.731111113
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