TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksii Korobov vs Ivan Yelfimov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111412119811611
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:40 and never touched: 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeOleksii Korobov to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksii Korobov above · Ivan Yelfimov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 99 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Oleksii Korobov at 63.5%
99 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Korobov 1–1 Ivan Yelfimov Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:4063.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 7.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Korobov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Korobov 1507 vs Yelfimov 1568
Yelfimov
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobov 40% vs Yelfimov 80%
Yelfimov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobov 70% vs Yelfimov 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobov +2 · Yelfimov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Korobov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yelfimov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobov 1.40 / Yelfimov 2.75
Signal prob.64% / 37%
Edge (Korobov)-7.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245485
Korobov1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 57 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it76% 40 of 53
Yelfimov2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog46% won 6 of 13
Down 0–1, comes back29% 2 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKorobov1wins
AwayYelfimov1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKorobovYelfimovK − YBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match46.548.0−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobovYelfimovBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 157 vs 22 / 3261.8%68.8%97 / 157 vs 22 / 32Avg sets wonper match2.32.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KorobovKorobov 1.40/Yelfimov 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.5%
Korobov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Yelfimov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 5 · 14:55O. Korobov4561411862I. Yelfimov541112911113
WSep 23 · 14:55O. Korobov48111367113I. Yelfimov42111111182
O. Korobov10
WOct 5 · 13:25O. Korobov1.501111113V. Kaganovych2.505780WSep 28 · 18:35V. Sharpai2.3810115171O. Korobov1.5312711193LSep 28 · 17:35O. Korobov1.4481090V. Hainiuk2.631112113LSep 28 · 16:35O. Korobov1.911111351F. Chashchin1.8061311113LSep 28 · 15:05O. Korobov1.73981151A. Lifanov2.0011118113WSep 28 · 13:05O. Korobov1.5391112113V. Kaganovych2.381171061WSep 23 · 19:25O. Korobov1.5711119113V. Slabyshev2.25941171WSep 23 · 17:55O. Korobov1.361111910113V. Chumak3.0035111272WSep 23 · 16:25O. Korobov1.3611812113Y. Bielokon3.008111031WSep 23 · 14:55O. Korobov1.40111367113I. Yelfimov2.75111111182
I. Yelfimov10
WOct 5 · 13:55A. Yakovenko1.8371180I. Yelfimov1.831113113WSep 30 · 18:35V. Sharpai2.505780I. Yelfimov1.501111113LSep 30 · 17:35I. Yelfimov2.2511513562V. Chumak1.572111111113WSep 30 · 16:35I. Yelfimov1.5711411113V. Slabyshev2.25611741WSep 30 · 15:05I. Yelfimov2.20111486113A. Yakovenko1.61312111132WSep 30 · 13:05I. Yelfimov1.4411511113D. Boltenkov2.63911891WSep 29 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.2099111592I. Yelfimov1.611111613113WSep 29 · 18:05I. Yelfimov1.501112113V. Sydorenko2.5091060WSep 29 · 16:05V. Sharpai2.007970I. Yelfimov1.731111113LSep 23 · 14:55O. Korobov1.40111367113I. Yelfimov2.75111111182
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.