TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksii Korobov vs Volodymyr Hainiuk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116119119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:07 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeOleksii Korobov to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Korobov above · Volodymyr Hainiuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Oleksii Korobov at 58.1%
77 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Korobov 12–12 Volodymyr Hainiuk Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:0758.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Korobov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobov 1516 vs Hainiuk 1397
Korobov
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobov 40% vs Hainiuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobov 60% vs Hainiuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobov -1 · Hainiuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Korobov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Korobov form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobov 1.615 / Hainiuk 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Korobov)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245769
Korobov1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 57 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it76% 40 of 53
Hainiuk2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKorobov6wins
AwayHainiuk4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKorobov leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorobov80%4 of 5
AwayHainiuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobov5Hainiuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Korobov7Hainiuk3n = 10Korobov took 7 of 10
S3Korobov8Hainiuk2n = 10Korobov took 8 of 10
S4Korobov2Hainiuk3n = 5Hainiuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKorobovHainiukK − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.932.8+2.1per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobovHainiukBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 158 vs 361 / 67062%53.9%98 / 158 vs 361 / 670Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KorobovKorobov 1.61/Hainiuk 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Korobov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Korobov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 16:25O. Korobov4291111113V. Hainiuk35116991
LSep 28 · 17:35O. Korobov2781090V. Hainiuk341112113
LSep 17 · 18:25O. Korobov30781141V. Hainiuk4011117113
LSep 14 · 15:35O. Korobov3511115172V. Hainiuk47951111113
WSep 7 · 15:35O. Korobov331111113V. Hainiuk217950
WAug 24 · 15:35O. Korobov341111123V. Hainiuk2082100
WAug 17 · 17:35O. Korobov361213113V. Hainiuk29101180
LAug 10 · 13:55O. Korobov368711101V. Hainiuk4211118123
WAug 3 · 15:35O. Korobov361213113V. Hainiuk26101150
WJul 27 · 16:25O. Korobov4071111113V. Hainiuk34116981
O. Korobov10
LOct 5 · 14:55O. Korobov1.4061411862I. Yelfimov2.751112911113WOct 5 · 13:25O. Korobov1.501111113V. Kaganovych2.505780WSep 28 · 18:35V. Sharpai2.3810115171O. Korobov1.5312711193LSep 28 · 17:35O. Korobov1.4481090V. Hainiuk2.631112113LSep 28 · 16:35O. Korobov1.911111351F. Chashchin1.8061311113LSep 28 · 15:05O. Korobov1.73981151A. Lifanov2.0011118113WSep 28 · 13:05O. Korobov1.5391112113V. Kaganovych2.381171061WSep 23 · 19:25O. Korobov1.5711119113V. Slabyshev2.25941171WSep 23 · 17:55O. Korobov1.361111910113V. Chumak3.0035111272WSep 23 · 16:25O. Korobov1.3611812113Y. Bielokon3.008111031
V. Hainiuk10
LOct 5 · 15:25V. Hainiuk2.38116961V. Kaganovych1.5361111113WOct 5 · 14:25V. Chumak1.67117341V. Hainiuk2.1081111113LSep 29 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.2099111592I. Yelfimov1.611111613113LSep 29 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.501011117113V. Hainiuk2.5012751172WSep 29 · 15:35A. Lifanov1.3671111942V. Hainiuk3.00117211113WSep 29 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.501111133V. Sydorenko2.5058110WSep 29 · 13:35V. Sharpai1.5311101011202V. Hainiuk2.38312127223WSep 28 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.3811119113V. Kaganovych1.53581131WSep 28 · 17:35O. Korobov1.4481090V. Hainiuk2.631112113LSep 28 · 15:35V. Sharpai1.53126115113V. Hainiuk2.38101191182
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