TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anton Yakovenko vs Ivan Yelfimov 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111113811––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:52 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Yelfimov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Yakovenko above · Ivan Yelfimov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 61 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Ivan Yelfimov at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Anton Yakovenko 0–2 Ivan Yelfimov Anton Yakovenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5254.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Yelfimov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Yakovenko 1465 vs Yelfimov 1537
Yelfimov
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yakovenko 60% vs Yelfimov 80%
Yelfimov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yakovenko 70% vs Yelfimov 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Yakovenko -1 · Yelfimov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Yelfimov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yelfimov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYakovenko 1.833 / Yelfimov 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Yelfimov)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13245549
Yakovenko1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Yelfimov1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeYakovenko0wins
AwayYelfimov2wins
2 of 2 to a deciderYelfimov leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away2
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricYakovenkoYelfimovYakovenko − YelfimovBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match42.550.5−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYakovenkoYelfimovBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 462 vs 20 / 3049.8%66.7%230 / 462 vs 20 / 30Avg sets wonper match2.02.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
YelfimovYakovenko 1.83/Yelfimov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Yelfimov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Yelfimov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 30 · 15:05A. Yakovenko40312111132I. Yelfimov50111486113
LSep 22 · 16:55A. Yakovenko4511981162I. Yelfimov51911119113
A. Yakovenko10
LOct 5 · 15:55A. Yakovenko1.44114281V. Chumak2.6391111113LSep 30 · 19:05A. Yakovenko1.737480V. Slabyshev2.001111113WSep 30 · 17:05V. Sharpai1.8061111972A. Yakovenko1.91119611113WSep 30 · 16:05A. Yakovenko1.611111113D. Boltenkov2.207980LSep 30 · 15:05I. Yelfimov2.20111486113A. Yakovenko1.61312111132WSep 30 · 13:35A. Yakovenko1.4411712113V. Chumak2.639111081WSep 22 · 19:55A. Yakovenko2.20111197113A. Lifanov1.6186111152WSep 22 · 17:55V. Kaganovych2.1011861262A. Yakovenko1.676111110113LSep 22 · 16:55A. Yakovenko1.4411981162I. Yelfimov2.63911119113WSep 22 · 15:55V. Sharpai1.7359111162A. Yakovenko2.00111197113
I. Yelfimov10
WOct 5 · 14:55O. Korobov1.4061411862I. Yelfimov2.751112911113WSep 30 · 18:35V. Sharpai2.505780I. Yelfimov1.501111113LSep 30 · 17:35I. Yelfimov2.2511513562V. Chumak1.572111111113WSep 30 · 16:35I. Yelfimov1.5711411113V. Slabyshev2.25611741WSep 30 · 15:05I. Yelfimov2.20111486113A. Yakovenko1.61312111132WSep 30 · 13:05I. Yelfimov1.4411511113D. Boltenkov2.63911891WSep 29 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.2099111592I. Yelfimov1.611111613113WSep 29 · 18:05I. Yelfimov1.501112113V. Sydorenko2.5091060WSep 29 · 16:05V. Sharpai2.007970I. Yelfimov1.731111113WSep 22 · 16:55A. Yakovenko1.4411981162I. Yelfimov2.63911119113
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