TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Evhenii Hrytsenko vs Volodymir Maksuta 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711119112115––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:36 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymir Maksuta to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingEvhenii Hrytsenko above · Volodymir Maksuta below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 67 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Volodymir Maksuta at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Evhenii Hrytsenko 14–15 Volodymir Maksuta Evhenii Hrytsenko has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Maksuta
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-15 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrytsenko 1647 vs Maksuta 1669
Maksuta
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrytsenko 40% vs Maksuta 60%
Maksuta
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrytsenko 60% vs Maksuta 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrytsenko -2 · Maksuta -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Maksuta) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrytsenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrytsenko 1.833 / Maksuta 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maksuta)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13245394
Hrytsenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Maksuta1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrytsenko6wins
AwayMaksuta4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHrytsenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrytsenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayMaksuta66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrytsenko7Maksuta3n = 10Hrytsenko took 7 of 10
S2Hrytsenko6Maksuta4n = 10Hrytsenko took 6 of 10
S3Hrytsenko5Maksuta5n = 10split evenly
S4Hrytsenko4Maksuta3n = 7Hrytsenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrytsenkoMaksutaH − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.133.6+2.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrytsenkoMaksutaBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 653 vs 182 / 31649%57.6%320 / 653 vs 182 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksutaHrytsenko 1.83/Maksuta 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Maksuta · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hrytsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 17:10E. Hrytsenko331111113V. Maksuta207850
LSep 28 · 15:10E. Hrytsenko291011441V. Maksuta4112711113
LSep 21 · 12:00E. Hrytsenko32581181V. Maksuta3811115113
WSep 7 · 18:00E. Hrytsenko50128712113V. Maksuta501011111082
WSep 3 · 18:00E. Hrytsenko331111113V. Maksuta203980
LAug 31 · 18:00E. Hrytsenko28123671V. Maksuta43101111113
WAug 17 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko4391211113V. Maksuta341110761
WJul 30 · 17:40E. Hrytsenko331111113V. Maksuta205690
WJul 29 · 11:40E. Hrytsenko3811115113V. Maksuta26551151
LJul 23 · 15:40E. Hrytsenko4211781152V. Maksuta44311118113
E. Hrytsenko10
LOct 5 · 12:10E. Hrytsenko2.251476101O. Strutinskiy1.57121111123LOct 2 · 11:50E. Hrytsenko1.80811971M. Mrykh1.9111911113LOct 2 · 10:20E. Hrytsenko1.739101291I. Nitchenko2.00111210113WOct 2 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko2.5011911113A. Derevianko1.50611971LOct 2 · 07:20E. Hrytsenko2.201188101Y. Riadynskyi1.6191111123WOct 2 · 05:50E. Hrytsenko2.501111113O. Strutinskiy1.509870WOct 1 · 17:10E. Hrytsenko1.911111113V. Maksuta1.807850LOct 1 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov2.00912119113E. Hrytsenko1.73111071152WOct 1 · 14:10E. Hrytsenko1.8311117113M. Tiutiunnyk1.83741161WOct 1 · 13:10V. Merzlikin2.00113761E. Hrytsenko1.7351111113
V. Maksuta10
LOct 5 · 12:40A. Derevianko1.611111113V. Maksuta2.209550LOct 1 · 17:10E. Hrytsenko1.911111113V. Maksuta1.807850WOct 1 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.759950V. Maksuta1.401111113WOct 1 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.1010910V. Maksuta1.671211113LOct 1 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.751311113V. Maksuta1.4011770WOct 1 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.83119961V. Maksuta1.8351111113LSep 28 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.501181091M. Mrykh2.5091112113WSep 28 · 15:10V. Maksuta1.8012711113E. Hrytsenko1.911011441LSep 28 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.9161111942O. Strutinskiy1.80117811113LSep 28 · 12:10V. Maksuta2.386116101A. Derevianko1.5311911123
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