TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Stepan Hryhorenko vs Andrey Troyan 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117118511118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:03 and never touched: 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeAndrey Troyan to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingStepan Hryhorenko above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Andrey Troyan at 78.6%
72 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Hryhorenko 3–18 Andrey Troyan Stepan Hryhorenko has won 3 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:0378.6%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
clears by 1.7pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Troyan
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-18 in 21
Troyan
Wrong
gap of 15 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hryhorenko 1558 vs Troyan 1700
Troyan
Wrong
both rated, 142 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hryhorenko 40% vs Troyan 80%
Troyan
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hryhorenko 70% vs Troyan 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hryhorenko -2 · Troyan +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Troyan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hryhorenko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHryhorenko 3.40 / Troyan 1.30
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Troyan)+1.7pp
Setka Cup · #13245290
Hryhorenko3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog31% won 24 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Troyan1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 182 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it92% 101 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it79% 139 of 176
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHryhorenko2wins
AwayTroyan8wins
Troyan leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHryhorenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTroyan100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hryhorenko2Troyan8n = 10Troyan took 8 of 10
S2Hryhorenko4Troyan6n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S3Hryhorenko2Troyan8n = 10Troyan took 8 of 10
S4Hryhorenko1Troyan3n = 4Troyan took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricHryhorenkoTroyanH − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match25.034.8−9.8per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHryhorenkoTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 144 vs 478 / 97740.3%48.9%58 / 144 vs 478 / 977Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanHryhorenko 3.40/Troyan 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.6%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hryhorenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko3811115113A. Troyan34781181
WOct 1 · 06:30S. Hryhorenko381314113A. Troyan29111260
LAug 17 · 08:00S. Hryhorenko26511461A. Troyan3911611113
LAug 15 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko198470A. Troyan331111113
LAug 10 · 10:33S. Hryhorenko179440A. Troyan331111113
LAug 10 · 09:35S. Hryhorenko31671171A. Troyan3811115113
LAug 7 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko113530A. Troyan331111113
LAug 6 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko204880A. Troyan331111113
LAug 3 · 10:18S. Hryhorenko275111011A. Troyan4111712113
LAug 3 · 06:05S. Hryhorenko23101030A. Troyan351212113
S. Hryhorenko10
LOct 5 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko1.501186101O. Karpenko2.5061111123LOct 1 · 09:29O. Tymofeev2.25741111113S. Hryhorenko1.5711118872LOct 1 · 09:00S. Hryhorenko2.5084100Y. Volkov1.501111123WOct 1 · 08:00S. Hryhorenko1.7311511113O. Tymofeev2.00511791WOct 1 · 06:30S. Hryhorenko4.001314113A. Troyan1.22111260LOct 1 · 05:30S. Hryhorenko2.509136101Y. Kovshun1.50111111123WSep 21 · 12:20S. Hryhorenko1.731112113S. Solomko2.0071080WSep 21 · 10:20A. Kurtenko3.0031271162S. Hryhorenko1.361110119113WSep 21 · 09:20S. Hryhorenko1.9111101111113E. Populovskyi1.8081213782WSep 21 · 08:20O. Leonenko1.9111613141S. Hryhorenko1.8081115163
A. Troyan10
WOct 5 · 05:35Y. Kovshun1.5311591272A. Troyan2.387111110113WOct 2 · 09:43A. Troyan1.91117136113Y. Kovshun1.80811111172LOct 2 · 08:30Y. Kovshun1.501211118113A. Troyan2.5014681172WOct 2 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov3.50114941A. Troyan1.2871111113WOct 2 · 05:30Y. Volkov1.7399100A. Troyan2.001111123WOct 2 · 04:30O. Karpenko2.2010730A. Troyan1.611211113WOct 1 · 08:30A. Troyan2.631112113Y. Kovshun1.4451090LOct 1 · 07:30Y. Volkov1.674111011113A. Troyan2.1011812852LOct 1 · 06:30S. Hryhorenko4.001314113A. Troyan1.22111260LOct 1 · 05:00O. Tymofeev2.10411115133A. Troyan1.67119211112
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