TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Stepan Hryhorenko vs Oleh Karpenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1168116111012––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:37 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeStepan Hryhorenko to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingStepan Hryhorenko above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Stepan Hryhorenko at 64.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Hryhorenko 5–3 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3764.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hryhorenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Hryhorenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hryhorenko 1558 vs Karpenko 1549
Hryhorenko
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hryhorenko 60% vs Karpenko 40%
Hryhorenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hryhorenko 70% vs Karpenko 30%
Hryhorenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hryhorenko +1 · Karpenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Hryhorenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHryhorenko 1.50 / Karpenko 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Hryhorenko)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245202
Hryhorenko1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 24 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it69% 18 of 26
Karpenko2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As underdog42% won 75 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back30% 30 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back18% 11 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeHryhorenko5wins
AwayKarpenko3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderHryhorenko leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHryhorenko60%3 of 5
AwayKarpenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hryhorenko5Karpenko3n = 8Hryhorenko took 5 of 8
S2Hryhorenko5Karpenko3n = 8Hryhorenko took 5 of 8
S3Hryhorenko4Karpenko4n = 8split evenly
S4Hryhorenko3Karpenko2n = 5Hryhorenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricHryhorenkoKarpenkoH − KBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match38.235.2+3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHryhorenkoKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 144 vs 362 / 68840.3%52.6%58 / 144 vs 362 / 688Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HryhorenkoHryhorenko 1.50/Karpenko 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Hryhorenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 5 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko351186101O. Karpenko4061111123
WAug 14 · 12:20S. Hryhorenko4291111113O. Karpenko31116771
WAug 6 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko341112113O. Karpenko1961030
LJul 27 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko174940O. Karpenko331111113
WJul 24 · 06:05S. Hryhorenko4311129113O. Karpenko336101161
WJul 21 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko551391111113O. Karpenko4715115882
WJul 13 · 11:35S. Hryhorenko401111183O. Karpenko3187160
LJul 3 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko40111110442O. Karpenko48861211113
S. Hryhorenko10
WOct 5 · 08:35S. Hryhorenko3.4011115113A. Troyan1.30781181LOct 1 · 09:29O. Tymofeev2.25741111113S. Hryhorenko1.5711118872LOct 1 · 09:00S. Hryhorenko2.5084100Y. Volkov1.501111123WOct 1 · 08:00S. Hryhorenko1.7311511113O. Tymofeev2.00511791WOct 1 · 06:30S. Hryhorenko4.001314113A. Troyan1.22111260LOct 1 · 05:30S. Hryhorenko2.509136101Y. Kovshun1.50111111123WSep 21 · 12:20S. Hryhorenko1.731112113S. Solomko2.0071080WSep 21 · 10:20A. Kurtenko3.0031271162S. Hryhorenko1.361110119113WSep 21 · 09:20S. Hryhorenko1.9111101111113E. Populovskyi1.8081213782WSep 21 · 08:20O. Leonenko1.9111613141S. Hryhorenko1.8081115163
O. Karpenko10
LOct 5 · 05:05Y. Volkov1.4014611113O. Karpenko2.751211851LOct 2 · 10:04V. Kolesnykov1.83111311143O. Karpenko1.8361113121WOct 2 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.40118861O. Karpenko2.7541111113LOct 2 · 07:30O. Karpenko2.10291191Y. Kovshun1.6711119113WOct 2 · 06:00O. Karpenko1.83591111113V. Kolesnykov1.8311118692LOct 2 · 04:30O. Karpenko2.2010730A. Troyan1.611211113LSep 25 · 11:00A. Martyniuk2.7511135113O. Karpenko1.404111141LSep 25 · 10:00A. Troyan1.6711114133O. Karpenko2.107311111WSep 25 · 08:30Y. Kovshun1.67111251172O. Karpenko2.10614114113LSep 25 · 06:30S. Kyienko1.53118117113O. Karpenko2.3861161152
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