TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yurii Volkov vs Oleh Karpenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
114811811611––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched: 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeYurii Volkov to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYurii Volkov above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Yurii Volkov at 68.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Volkov 45–21 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 21 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5868.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Volkov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
45-21 in 66
Volkov
Wrong
gap of 24 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volkov 1599 vs Karpenko 1545
Volkov
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volkov 40% vs Karpenko 20%
Volkov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volkov 60% vs Karpenko 40%
Volkov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volkov -1 · Karpenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Volkov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolkov 1.40 / Karpenko 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Volkov)-2.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13230399
Volkov1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 172 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it98% 79 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it84% 119 of 142
Karpenko2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog42% won 75 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back19% 11 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVolkov7wins
AwayKarpenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVolkov leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolkov75%6 of 8
AwayKarpenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volkov8Karpenko2n = 10Volkov took 8 of 10
S2Volkov7Karpenko3n = 10Volkov took 7 of 10
S3Volkov8Karpenko2n = 10Volkov took 8 of 10
S4Volkov3Karpenko2n = 5Volkov took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVolkovKarpenkoV − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.532.8+6.7per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolkovKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 787 vs 364 / 68952.1%52.8%410 / 787 vs 364 / 689Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VolkovVolkov 1.40/Karpenko 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.7%
Volkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 04:30Y. Volkov46111311113O. Karpenko35415881
WSep 18 · 04:30Y. Volkov4281211113O. Karpenko371110791
WSep 14 · 06:35Y. Volkov361114113O. Karpenko2561270
LSep 11 · 04:30Y. Volkov4511591192O. Karpenko51911119113
WSep 8 · 04:30Y. Volkov421711143O. Karpenko31154120
LSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov4791211872O. Karpenko451110211113
WAug 25 · 04:30Y. Volkov351211123O. Karpenko25105100
LAug 17 · 04:30Y. Volkov36119881O. Karpenko3961111113
WAug 11 · 06:00Y. Volkov331111113O. Karpenko218670
WAug 4 · 12:05Y. Volkov331111113O. Karpenko199550
Y. Volkov10
LOct 2 · 08:00Y. Volkov1.91101150V. Kolesnykov1.801213113WOct 2 · 06:30Y. Volkov1.801111113Y. Kovshun1.915870LOct 2 · 05:30Y. Volkov1.7399100A. Troyan2.001111123LOct 1 · 09:59Y. Kovshun1.802111111113Y. Volkov1.9111391382WOct 1 · 09:00S. Hryhorenko2.5084100Y. Volkov1.501111123WOct 1 · 07:30Y. Volkov1.674111011113A. Troyan2.1011812852WOct 1 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.801110118113O. Tymofeev1.9181281192LOct 1 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.739830Y. Kovshun2.001111113WSep 29 · 09:58D. Khairov2.1011116642Y. Volkov1.67881111113WSep 29 · 09:00O. Leonenko6.008550Y. Volkov1.111111113
O. Karpenko10
LOct 2 · 10:04V. Kolesnykov1.83111311143O. Karpenko1.8361113121LOct 2 · 07:30O. Karpenko2.10291191Y. Kovshun1.6711119113WOct 2 · 06:00O. Karpenko1.83591111113V. Kolesnykov1.8311118692LOct 2 · 04:30O. Karpenko2.2010730A. Troyan1.611211113LSep 25 · 11:00A. Martyniuk2.7511135113O. Karpenko1.404111141LSep 25 · 10:00A. Troyan1.6711114133O. Karpenko2.107311111WSep 25 · 08:30Y. Kovshun1.67111251172O. Karpenko2.10614114113LSep 25 · 06:30S. Kyienko1.53118117113O. Karpenko2.3861161152LSep 25 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.40111311113O. Karpenko2.75415881WSep 23 · 11:30A. Troyan1.61111110652O. Karpenko2.20791211113
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