TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Dedek vs Tomas Dousa 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181513115––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:47 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Tomas Dousa below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 63 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Tomas Dousa at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Dedek 19–17 Tomas Dousa Tomas Dousa has won 17 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:4754.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dousa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-17 in 36
Dedek
Correct
gap of 2 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1461 vs Dousa 1482
Dousa
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 40% vs Dousa 60%
Dousa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 40% vs Dousa 60%
Dousa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek +1 · Dousa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dousa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dedek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 1.833 / Dousa 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dousa)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13244070
Dedek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Dousa1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDedek6wins
AwayDousa4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDedek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDedek83.3%5 of 6
AwayDousa75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek6Dousa4n = 10Dedek took 6 of 10
S2Dedek5Dousa5n = 10split evenly
S3Dedek6Dousa4n = 10Dedek took 6 of 10
S4Dedek2Dousa4n = 6Dousa took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDedekDousaDedek − DousaBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.438.8+0.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekDousaBasisWin rate · lifetime504 / 980 vs 349 / 70851.4%49.3%504 / 980 vs 349 / 708Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DousaDedek 1.83/Dousa 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dousa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dedek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 18:00J. Dedek4681117101T. Dousa51111315123
WOct 1 · 14:30J. Dedek331111113T. Dousa259970
WSep 11 · 23:30J. Dedek55911811163T. Dousa50117117142
LSep 8 · 19:00J. Dedek31561371T. Dousa44111111113
WAug 24 · 20:58J. Dedek47111195113T. Dousa3986111132
WAug 24 · 19:30J. Dedek3911215113T. Dousa419111381
WAug 13 · 20:00J. Dedek401116133T. Dousa32714110
WAug 3 · 17:30J. Dedek331111113T. Dousa238960
LAug 3 · 16:30J. Dedek391199101T. Dousa4061111123
LJul 31 · 22:30J. Dedek3119570T. Dousa432111113
J. Dedek10
LOct 5 · 16:30J. Dedek2.3811101151T. Kolenic1.5313129113WOct 5 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk2.38115941J. Dedek1.5391111113LOct 3 · 21:05J. Plachy1.471111113J. Dedek2.508860WOct 3 · 20:30J. Dedek2.00111184113K. Darin1.7399111192LOct 3 · 19:00J. Dedek2.257860J. Plachy1.571111113LOct 3 · 18:00L. Krok2.5051111113J. Dedek1.50116721LOct 2 · 21:00M. Sedlak1.50661111113J. Dedek2.5011117782LOct 2 · 20:30J. Dedek1.837670K. Darin1.831111113WOct 2 · 19:00J. Dedek2.63111178123M. Sedlak1.44641111102LOct 2 · 18:00T. Dousa2.00111315123J. Dedek1.7381117101
T. Dousa10
WOct 5 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk2.6361261252T. Dousa1.4411101110113WOct 5 · 14:30T. Dousa1.441114113T. Kolenic2.6371290LOct 2 · 21:30T. Dousa1.738511111K. Darin2.0011119133WOct 2 · 20:00T. Dousa4.331111113M. Sedlak1.208940LOct 2 · 19:30K. Darin2.101111511123T. Dousa1.67591113102WOct 2 · 18:00T. Dousa2.00111315123J. Dedek1.7381117101WOct 2 · 17:05T. Dousa1.10111197113J. Prokupek6.5098111182WOct 2 · 16:30J. Prokupek1.91511971T. Dousa1.8011711113LOct 2 · 15:30T. Dousa2.251011881M. Vedmoch1.5712411113LOct 2 · 14:30V. Postelt1.571111113T. Dousa2.258890
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