TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Dedek vs Tibor Kolenic 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141199111012119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:24 and never touched: 65.8% is still 65.8%
Graded at full timeTibor Kolenic to win
65.8%
65.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Tibor Kolenic below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Tibor Kolenic at 65.8%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Dedek 6–24 Tibor Kolenic Jiri Dedek has won 6 of their 30 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kolenic beat Dedek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2465.8%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.5pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kolenic
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-24 in 30
Kolenic
Wrong
gap of 18 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1463 vs Kolenic 1451
Dedek
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 60% vs Kolenic 40%
Dedek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 40% vs Kolenic 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek -1 · Kolenic +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Kolenic) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolenic form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 2.625 / Kolenic 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Kolenic)-3.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13250118
Dedek2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 84 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back22% 28 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 73
Kolenic1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 75 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it71% 60 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDedek2wins
AwayKolenic8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolenic leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDedekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKolenic88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek1Kolenic9n = 10Kolenic took 9 of 10
S2Dedek5Kolenic5n = 10split evenly
S3Dedek6Kolenic4n = 10Dedek took 6 of 10
S4Dedek2Kolenic5n = 7Kolenic took 5 of 7
S5Dedek1Kolenic3n = 4Kolenic took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDedekKolenicD − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match35.239.6−4.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekKolenicBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 982 vs 242 / 51951.4%46.6%505 / 982 vs 242 / 519Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolenicDedek 2.63/Kolenic 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.8%
Kolenic · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dedek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 16:30J. Dedek3711101151T. Kolenic4513129113
LSep 29 · 17:30J. Dedek31811661T. Kolenic4111811113
LSep 29 · 15:30J. Dedek4011101181T. Kolenic4513129113
LSep 16 · 14:00J. Dedek48971111102T. Kolenic48111177123
WAug 31 · 17:01J. Dedek331111113T. Kolenic208480
LAug 31 · 16:30J. Dedek4571111792T. Kolenic45117511113
LMay 11 · 18:00J. Dedek1633100T. Kolenic341111123
WApr 20 · 16:30J. Dedek463111011113T. Kolenic4111812732
LOct 30 · 22:00J. Dedek4291111562T. Kolenic44113811113
LOct 30 · 19:30J. Dedek142930T. Kolenic331111113
J. Dedek10
LOct 5 · 16:30J. Dedek2.3811101151T. Kolenic1.5313129113WOct 5 · 15:00J. Dedek1.831115113T. Dousa1.8381350WOct 5 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk2.38115941J. Dedek1.5391111113LOct 3 · 21:05J. Plachy1.471111113J. Dedek2.508860WOct 3 · 20:30J. Dedek2.00111184113K. Darin1.7399111192LOct 3 · 19:00J. Dedek2.257860J. Plachy1.571111113LOct 3 · 18:00L. Krok2.5051111113J. Dedek1.50116721LOct 2 · 21:00M. Sedlak1.50661111113J. Dedek2.5011117782LOct 2 · 20:30J. Dedek1.837670K. Darin1.831111113WOct 2 · 19:00J. Dedek2.63111178123M. Sedlak1.44641111102
T. Kolenic10
WOct 5 · 16:30J. Dedek2.3811101151T. Kolenic1.5313129113WOct 5 · 15:30T. Kolenic2.381111113Y. Holovatiuk1.535770LOct 5 · 14:30T. Dousa1.441114113T. Kolenic2.6371290LOct 4 · 12:59D. Horak1.9112311113T. Kolenic1.801011631LOct 4 · 12:30F. Briza2.00111198133T. Kolenic1.73521111112LOct 4 · 11:30T. Kolenic1.67119881A. Svoboda2.1081111113LOct 4 · 10:30D. Horak1.611111113T. Kolenic2.206440WSep 29 · 17:30T. Kolenic1.5311811113J. Dedek2.38811661WSep 29 · 16:30F. Briza2.00413971T. Kolenic1.73111111113WSep 29 · 15:30T. Kolenic1.6113129113J. Dedek2.2011101181
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