TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Orlowski vs Tomas Kanka 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191311116––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched: 74.9% is still 74.9%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
74.9%
74.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Tomas Kanka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 61 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Petr Orlowski at 74.9%
61 points played in total.
H2H Petr Orlowski 7–3 Tomas Kanka Tomas Kanka has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2774.9%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 0.1pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Orlowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Orlowski
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orlowski 1709 vs Kanka 1541
Orlowski
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orlowski 80% vs Kanka 60%
Orlowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orlowski 70% vs Kanka 50%
Orlowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Orlowski +1 · Kanka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Orlowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrlowski 1.333 / Kanka 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Orlowski)-0.1pp
Setka Cup · #13242346
Orlowski1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 63 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 48 of 62
Kanka3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 37 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOrlowski7wins
AwayKanka3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOrlowski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrlowski75%6 of 8
AwayKankan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orlowski8Kanka2n = 10Orlowski took 8 of 10
S2Orlowski6Kanka4n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10
S3Orlowski7Kanka3n = 10Orlowski took 7 of 10
S4Orlowski2Kanka3n = 5Kanka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOrlowskiKankaO − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.533.0+3.5per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrlowskiKankaBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 368 vs 187 / 39254.9%47.7%202 / 368 vs 187 / 392Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiOrlowski 1.33/Kanka 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 06:30P. Orlowski351113113T. Kanka2691160
WSep 28 · 06:15P. Orlowski331111113T. Kanka215790
WSep 20 · 08:00P. Orlowski351111133T. Kanka2348110
LAug 22 · 07:30P. Orlowski209740T. Kanka331111113
WMar 7 · 07:15P. Orlowski501161111113T. Kanka4341161392
LOct 11 · 09:05P. Orlowski271110421T. Kanka3951211113
LOct 11 · 05:15P. Orlowski4518911162T. Kanka561611711113
WJun 29 · 07:15P. Orlowski4281112113T. Kanka351151091
WMar 27 · 21:19P. Orlowski45111112113T. Kanka35851481
WMar 27 · 20:15P. Orlowski331111113T. Kanka194870
P. Orlowski10
LOct 4 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.91812128102J. Jnr1.8011101011123WOct 4 · 05:30P. Orlowski1.911111113D. Brichacek1.809990LOct 3 · 16:44P. Orlowski1.4411113832L. Kolman2.6365111153WOct 3 · 15:45P. Orlowski1.67111110113J. Juppa2.10341251WOct 3 · 14:15L. Kolman2.1010270P. Orlowski1.671211103WOct 3 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.50121181192P. Orlowski2.50149118113LSep 28 · 08:18Z. Kuksa2.20581111113P. Orlowski1.6111115582WSep 28 · 07:15P. Orlowski1.916111011113Z. Kuksa1.8011912892WSep 28 · 06:15P. Orlowski1.441111113T. Kanka2.635790WSep 28 · 05:15P. Orlowski1.73111186113R. Merkl2.0058111182
T. Kanka10
WOct 4 · 08:00T. Kanka2.101141211113D. Brichacek1.6771114962LOct 4 · 06:00J. Jnr1.5711114113T. Kanka2.25981181LOct 3 · 09:08Z. Kuksa1.831111811113T. Kanka1.8361311462WOct 3 · 07:30M. Taranko2.63110100T. Kanka1.441112123WOct 3 · 07:00T. Kanka1.671111113J. Botka2.103350WOct 3 · 06:00T. Kanka2.381211113Z. Kuksa1.5310460WSep 28 · 08:48R. Merkl1.91861121T. Kanka1.8011114113LSep 28 · 07:45T. Kanka1.83411281R. Merkl1.83111110113LSep 28 · 06:15P. Orlowski1.441111113T. Kanka2.635790LSep 28 · 05:45Z. Kuksa1.6111811113T. Kanka2.20611761
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