TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vaclav Nadvornik vs Jan Kocab 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511811––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Nadvornik above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 54.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nadvornik 6–6 Jan Kocab Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0854.5%Our read44.4%to break even at 2.25
clears by 10.1pp44.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.25 they are the same number)
What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kocab
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nadvornik 1730 vs Kocab 1750
Kocab
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nadvornik 80% vs Kocab 100%
Kocab
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nadvornik 60% vs Kocab 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nadvornik +4 · Kocab +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Nadvornik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNadvornik 2.25 / Kocab 1.571
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Nadvornik)+10.1pp
TT Cup · #13242026
Nadvornik2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 19 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Kocab1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 64 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it88% 53 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNadvornik4wins
AwayKocab6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKocab leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNadvornik80%4 of 5
AwayKocab100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nadvornik5Kocab5n = 10split evenly
S2Nadvornik5Kocab5n = 10split evenly
S3Nadvornik6Kocab4n = 10Nadvornik took 6 of 10
S4Nadvornik3Kocab3n = 6split evenly
S5Nadvornik0Kocab3n = 3Kocab took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNadvornikKocabN − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.735.3+0.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNadvornikKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 322 vs 138 / 28755%48.1%177 / 322 vs 138 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NadvornikNadvornik 2.25/Kocab 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Nadvornik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 12:25V. Nadvornik207580J. Kocab331111113
LOct 2 · 09:25V. Nadvornik475111110102J. Kocab43115312123
WSep 22 · 12:20V. Nadvornik3811115113J. Kocab34961181
LDec 6 · 19:10V. Nadvornik4211311982J. Kocab48811711113
LNov 30 · 15:20V. Nadvornik33411991J. Kocab3711411113
WFeb 13 · 10:25V. Nadvornik331111113J. Kocab166370
WFeb 11 · 19:10V. Nadvornik341111123J. Kocab2486100
LFeb 11 · 15:40V. Nadvornik4788111192J. Kocab47111177113
LFeb 5 · 13:25V. Nadvornik2711880J. Kocab351311113
WJan 30 · 09:25V. Nadvornik3611311113J. Kocab36911881
V. Nadvornik10
WOct 4 · 10:55P. Dvorak2.38411941V. Nadvornik1.5311911113WOct 2 · 14:25V. Nadvornik1.90111210113D. Vesecky1.808101241WOct 2 · 12:55P. Dvorak1.531351131V. Nadvornik2.3815117113WOct 2 · 12:25D. Vesecky1.8071411532V. Nadvornik1.911112911113LOct 2 · 11:25V. Nadvornik2.25133941M. Cerny1.57111111113LOct 2 · 10:10V. Nadvornik1.482680M. Brozek2.451111113LOct 2 · 09:25V. Nadvornik1.835111110102J. Kocab1.83115312123LOct 2 · 07:55J. Benak1.801111911113V. Nadvornik1.9113811592WOct 2 · 07:25M. Brozek2.3891060V. Nadvornik1.531112113WOct 1 · 10:09V. Nadvornik2.0011611113M. Cerny1.73911271
J. Kocab10
LOct 4 · 12:55P. Dvorak1.801111811113J. Kocab1.9166111382WOct 4 · 11:25J. Kocab1.3611111110113J. Benak3.0071381282WOct 2 · 10:40J. Kocab1.73111195113J. Benak2.0044111172WOct 2 · 09:25V. Nadvornik1.835111110102J. Kocab1.83115312123WOct 2 · 08:25J. Kocab1.4411116113M. Brozek2.63371161WOct 2 · 06:55J. Benak1.83711691J. Kocab1.8311911113LOct 1 · 14:03J. Kocab1.40411111052D. Vesecky2.75116712113LOct 1 · 12:55J. Kocab3.0081030M. Cerny1.361112113LOct 1 · 11:55J. Kocab3.409910D. Bochnak1.301111113WOct 1 · 10:55J. Kocab1.44471111113D. Vesecky2.6311117272
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