TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasily Kondratenko vs Volodymyr Varchenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171191311––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched: 71.2% is still 71.2%
Graded at full timeVasily Kondratenko to win
71.2%
71.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Kondratenko above · Volodymyr Varchenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 62 set 3, 13-11 · our read held Vasily Kondratenko at 71.2%
62 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Kondratenko 5–0 Volodymyr Varchenko Volodymyr Varchenko has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0871.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 2.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kondratenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Kondratenko
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kondratenko 1251 vs Varchenko 1178
Kondratenko
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kondratenko 100% vs Varchenko 20%
Kondratenko
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kondratenko 70% vs Varchenko 50%
Kondratenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kondratenko +5 · Varchenko -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Kondratenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKondratenko 1.363 / Varchenko 3.00
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Kondratenko)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240949
Kondratenko1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 86 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it79% 61 of 77
Varchenko3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 19 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKondratenko5wins
AwayVarchenko0wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKondratenko leads 5–0, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKondratenko100%3 of 3
AwayVarchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kondratenko3Varchenko2n = 5Kondratenko took 3 of 5
S2Kondratenko5Varchenko0n = 5Kondratenko took 5 of 5
S3Kondratenko5Varchenko0n = 5Kondratenko took 5 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKondratenkoVarchenkoK − VBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match38.027.0+11.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKondratenkoVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 544 vs 108 / 23544.7%46%243 / 544 vs 108 / 235Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KondratenkoKondratenko 1.36/Varchenko 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.2%
Kondratenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kondratenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 27 · 10:40V. Kondratenko331111113V. Varchenko165560
WSep 20 · 15:10V. Kondratenko44311118113V. Varchenko3711831142
WAug 22 · 11:30V. Kondratenko46511118113V. Varchenko4011751162
WMay 9 · 09:30V. Kondratenko331111113V. Varchenko229760
WApr 26 · 08:35V. Kondratenko341211113V. Varchenko2010640
V. Kondratenko10
WOct 4 · 10:40V. Kondratenko2.501491193M. Khalenko1.501211851WSep 30 · 12:05V. Kondratenko1.6111112113S. Semenets2.20851161WSep 30 · 10:05O. Miklukha3.25711681V. Kondratenko1.3311711113WSep 30 · 08:05V. Mukhin2.201171011V. Kondratenko1.6161112113WSep 30 · 07:05V. Kondratenko1.8311711113S. Hovorunets1.83411691LSep 30 · 06:05V. Stukalov2.2511711113V. Kondratenko1.57711651LSep 29 · 16:40V. Mukhin2.5010111110113V. Kondratenko1.5012881272LSep 29 · 15:40V. Kondratenko1.8311761172S. Hovorunets1.83711115113WSep 29 · 14:40V. Kondratenko1.30111343113O. Miklukha3.40811111172WSep 29 · 13:10V. Kondratenko1.731112113V. Stukalov2.0071080
V. Varchenko10
LOct 4 · 13:10V. Varchenko3.259450M. Khalenko1.331111113LOct 4 · 11:10V. Varchenko1.73117111092V. Stukalov2.00611912113LOct 3 · 11:05V. Varchenko1.73621191O. Stopin2.0011117113LOct 3 · 09:35V. Varchenko1.8091111992V. Kucheriavyi1.91119611113LOct 3 · 08:05V. Varchenko1.448770S. Osipov2.631111113WOct 3 · 06:35V. Varchenko1.221112133V. Mykhalchenko4.00910110WOct 3 · 05:05V. Varchenko1.671111123P. Ostrovskyi2.1093100LSep 27 · 16:40V. Varchenko1.671111131062V. Kucheriavyi2.10871512113WSep 27 · 15:10V. Varchenko1.83471111143O. Miklukha1.83111167122WSep 27 · 13:40V. Varchenko1.5311911113S. Osipov2.38311841
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.